Captain Krompdown
But not all sellers are motivated that way. For example, imagine a collector with a large store of presumably valuable items who has decided on a new direction for their collection. To start moving in that new direction, they decide to sell off some of their stash in order to stockpile some cash just so they can be ready if something they like suddenly appears.
In this example the individual has some knowledge of what his items are worth. He either paid for them or exchanged them for another item he bought. He is working with the assumption his items are at least above the threshold of "merch vaule". It's implied that this knowledge is limited hence the desire for a "price check" or at a minimum wants clarification. So he post several items for review and presumably gets responses about them. What addition information were these "price checkers" using to create the response they gave?
Did they know:
- How many potentially buyers would be interested at the present time
- How much cash these people had to commit to a purchase
- How motivated they were in buying (Level of interest of potential buyers have).
These are arguably the 3 most important factors that will decide the sell price and I would summit that almost every "price checker" has very little if any of that information. They cant know every possible bidder and there intentions or how future events will affect there actions. As such they can't weigh those variables to predict the outcome correctly (obvious exceptions for fortune tellers). This leaves us with the question. What information do they have to make a prediction? The list of things they might know is like the list they don't, long. But here some that are commonly given as justification of purposed prices.
- Previous sell prices
- Previous sell prices of similar items
- Previous sell prices of items with a similar rarity
(or a combination these)
All of these are for lack of a better term out of date. They are the result of a different time with different variables that are likely not fully understood even with hindsight. With just the 3 variables I listed formerly everybody can see how past sales info cannot accurately predict future prices (especially with using so few data points in the case of high end items). This is born out in practice, I am reminded of the blue q8 magmas as an example. They 2nd one that came for sale only got half the price of the first. An extreme example but anybody who has spend time trading know this phenomenon to be true. Past sale are a guide or "ballpark" but ultimately cant be relied upon to reflect future transactions and can be wildly wrong.
All of this and much more is why the only true way to know the price is to sell, I think we agree on this. I am also in agreeance with you that peoples predictive prices can have some measure of accuracy. This is pretty obvious because most price checks aren't insanely wrong. This is a function of them having some information with which to work with even if its incomplete compared to market forces. I think where we are differing is what value this somewhat accurate predictive ability is and how/if it should be used.
I went into some detail in the previous post of how irreverent a price check is if you intended to sell regardless of the opinions. In your example a person wants to sell 1 of a number which is different but in my eyes warrants the same response. If the accuracy of the price check cannot be known until the sale then the guy looking for which item to sell based on that price check is essentially making a decision upon flawed data. To me listing all his selected items for sale and then deciding, (once the numbers are in) what to let go is of benefit to him. This course of action absolutely goes on successfully. Sellers list dozens of items for sale with no intention of selling all but to gauge interest and find real price information. I submit this is to be encouraged instead of using PC Thread.
Yes we don't need a sale to know a feather will fetch less than a Q8 sephis. Likewise we don't need a sale to know that a Q9 Voltaic Spear will currently get bids of 4a+. If inexperienced players need to be informed of current prices of these types of frequently traded items then fine, PC thread can accommodate that if other methods cant. The kind of price checks that started this discussion are high end ones. Items that are not frequency traded and therefore little information can be know about the variables that will effect its sell price. In this scenario I believe personal opinions amount to nothing more than a guess, something that's not helpful information in my mind. I would prefer somebody say "I just don't know" rather than give me an answer engaging in conjecture. If the trading community wants to keep the guessing game going then so be it. What I am suggesting is a viable alternative to that system which improves accuracy and reduces confusion, frustration and in some cases dishonesty.
As previously outlined I believe there is room for "ballpark" figures to accompany the default advise of not selling via pm & list publicly for sale. But only really as context to know what a "lowball" looks like or perhaps if its not worth the effort to sell. Information on previous sales ect can be provided for the purpose or validating the "ballpark" figure given but not much more. I will add to my previous suggestion and summit below my ideal solution (apart from scrapping the whole thing lol). Price checkers have 3 choices (essentially votes) with the option of giving additional info to include: "ballpark" price ideally accompanied with past sales info and alike to substantiate it.
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"Item has some value, auction and find out how much"
(Auction meaning a sell thread supplemented by taking bids from kama ect)
We Advise you to:
Not sell to private messages
Allow adequate time for you're auction to take place (At least a week recommended)
Not expect any price given here to be the price you sell for
"Item has value, is regularly sold for.."
(Option for adding a current commonly accepted price)
"Item is merch food"
(Regarded as less than 10k)
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I believe this simple and transparent voting mechanic would result in more people participating in price checks and give better results for users. It prevents "lowball" offers taking place and adds some uniformity to price checking instead of the free for all we currently have. Ultimately it pushes more rare items to be put for sale where the true price can be found which should be the goal. Apologies for the essay and all the typos.
