todays market

Sorry Ikki and Max, you're both wrong and honestly acting childish.

Neither of you are able to manipulate the market, and it's pretty stupid to suggest that it's possible via PC.

Surge is right about basically everything he posted (other than a Pokémon being better than GW). The reality is that the only legit example of market manipulation is (1) hoarding of Q8 caster swords/axes from a couple years ago, and potentially (2) botting of Canthan staves. Market manipulation, if possible in his game, is only able to be done via selling. That way the ones that control the supply (via hoarding or botting) can set prices for the items. There are probably other examples of hoarding/artificially limited supply, but none have ever had actual demand to pair with them (for example dual reduc, caster shields or hammers).

Current market conditions have very little to do with either of the people arguing here, so take it somewhere else.

Sorry, I don't have anything to say about the Max vs. Pleikki spat. Honestly, I didn't bother reading. Not interested in learning about current events. I'm here to argue in strictly abstract terms about things I used to know about! Let's do it!

I don't agree that it's impossible to manipulate markets via PC. We saw that a *lot* on Guru. When the general public thought Guru was the place to go with their high-end items and certain talking heads (who I won't name) dominated that site, market manipulation happened All. The. Time. I can't say whether it's been happening here because, frankly, I don't pay attention anymore. The level of disagreement that's happening is actually a good sign that the fix isn't in around here. A lack of disagreement is the danger sign. As long as Max and Pleikki are conspicuously disagreeing with each other over PCs, I have a hard time believing that either one is successfully manipulating the market. Their disagreements spread information into the Guild Wars universe, like the collision of those two neutron stars I just read about. Checks and balances. Light and dark. Yin and Yang. Balance. Keep up the good work, boys!

I guess I have doubts about this idea of individual collectors being able to hoard to the point of creating rarity where there really is none. It seems to me like if that's possible, then the item is pretty effing rare to begin with. For example, I don't know how many people out there have a req 8 15^50 clouded maul, but I know Kabong has more than one. Not many more than one, but definitely more than one. He loved that skin so he grabbed them when he saw them (or I grabbed them for him). In the end, though, I don't think he has more than a handful (3? 4? Maybe 5?). That's not artificial rarity created by hoarding. That's a dedicated collector who loved a rare item (and his brother) who worked hard enough to buy nice clouded mauls when they appeared. Even if Kabong didn't own any of those hammers, they'd still be pretty effing rare.

No doubt there's such a thing as hoarding (collectors are especially prone to that disease), but does somebody really own so many req 8 +5e oni blades (or whatever) to create a market shortage beyond the actual rarity of the item? Again, I'm out of the game these days so this is an honest question, not a rhetorical one. Maybe you know of someone sitting on mule account full of those things. I dunno. You tell me.

Kromp and Yuko, thanks for your post. I slightly disagree with Yuko about only 1 horde as an example, I can think of 2. I realized because of Kromp's post that should have included in my original post that hoarding can be done without the motivation to artificially make an item rare. Hoarding can simply be done because one likes the item with the side effect of making the item seem rarer than it is. I would personally not call Kabong's collection the level of a horde. But I also do not recall everything in it. In the numismatic world, there have been many people that have tried to horde key date coins. Both with the intent of trying to make a date seem artificially rare, and with the intent of purely loving that date and wanting as many as they can afford.

I am also not as active as I used to be. But, I do think there is a certain q8 +5e collector who has enough q8 +5e weapons that a market shortage was created beyond the actual rarity of q8 +5e swords. Does he have 15 of one skin alone? No, probably not. I don't know for sure. But he has a massive set in total. I also think that a certain dual reduction collector has done the same thing. I'm not accusing anyone of anything negative. I am just calling things how I see them. I think both of these collectors have created an artificial shortage of those items in game which has massively driven up the prices on them. I personally think it is kind of wonderous that one single person can have such an impact on something like that. I would like to add though that I also think that if either of these hordes were dispersed, that the prices would plummet on those items. The seller might be able to name a price for the first few. But it won't take much to saturate the markets and cause a large price drop. The items that go for guzu dollars are the ones were there is only 1 or 2 survivors into 2017. Not the items that were in hordes where there are 50+ very similar items in a single relatively active collection. It's like coins - something with a high mintage can be very rare in present day because there are few survivors whereas something with a lower mintage but more survivors may be less valuable which is counterintuitive if you only look at mintages.

Edit: Last edit. I kept adding little tidbits of thoughts and stuff.

Besides all the figthing ive done with max, ive tried put some of my thoughs about the market between the lines and here is what i think about th market, wether other ppl agree or not is up to them but its just how i see it.

1st. There is Nothing wrong on the market.
- Its normal have ups and downs and other items decreased demand and others higher, but that doesnt make market broken even if it might be annoying sometimes.

2nd. It is sellers market, but there must be some respect for others.
- When it comes to rare items, ive allways said "Some items arent ment to be sold" because bids are too low, and thesedays i mean that more then ever before.
- I think prices are "fair" when someone buys the item, then the buyer thinks "Thats fair. i buy it" If the prices are for buyers might not fair, he wont buy it and thats up for the buyer to decide.

3rd. Rarity has nothing to do with prices
- i mean that.. When it comes to botted items they sell for higher then ever before even tho they have decreased in rarity. Same goes for many so called "rare items".

4th. Manipulating?
- Yes and No, i think ppl can try to manipulate market but i rly dont think its possible, its not only few ppl doing the market here, it might seem small from legacy bubble we watch it from. There are and allways have been alot more then just 1 or 2 sellers/buyers, and i belive ppl made their own minds way before asking other opinions.

5th. Is it the end coming?
- No Collecting never been better then it is now, being on market so long i can say there was never so many perf q7/8s on market then past years 2015-2017, back in 08-11 there was WAY less rare items sold, mainly because thesedays ppl come here back to quit, cash out, sell their gear for what ever reasons.

6th. Can we rly blame botters and ebayers?
- For someting we can, like making some stuff more common, but they also bring market money that everyone uses to buy their items, anyone here whove been struggling between the ppl with unlimited funds know its two bladed sword. u also take advantage from them by selling the items to them, which gives u alot cash to buy other items for high prices again. its rly odd to complain about high buying prices when i dont see anyone selling their goods any cheaper then current market either.

-Pleikki

This thread has taken several avenues, a few that I won't go down. Back to my original point that has been mentioned a couple times, I am hoping to encourage everyone to understand that what may be junk to one person, may not be to another. That's what is great about this game, there is an incredible large variety of items that can be obtained, whether they are available now or only in the past. This makes the GAME a collectors dream.

Everyone has their own likes and dislikes, but there is no reason for someone else's likes to be looked down on just because it's not something you would keep.

Real life scenario, people have yard sales to get rid of their "junk". People shop yard sales to get "rusty gold".

I am going to end this with a quote from a very wise one....

Okay I've got some free time, so I'm going to address Kromp's points in turn, cause I actually only have a slightly nuanced difference in opinion from him. However two nota benes before I do-- (1) it's hoard, not horde; a maniacal army of Q8 +5e swords and axes are not preparing to sweep through the undefended farmlands :P, and (2) attacking someone's person and character (even via generalized implication) rather than their argument is frankly childish, and something both people arguing have done. I repeat, take it somewhere else, like the PMs.

Moving on then--

HI Kromp. Welcome back, please stay longer, we miss you god damn.

(A) To address your first point, I should have clarified that in saying market manipulation is close to impossible via PC, I meant that strictly in regards to the current market. Some people have insinuated that the reason that items which previously would be considered terrible are selling for multiple sets of FoW armor is because PCers have created a culture of overvaluation. This is simply put wrong, poorly supported and as close to mudslinging as you can get in a context like this. Most importantly it vastly overexaggerates the importance, vitality and influence of Legacy and it's PCers.

(B) I think you're slightly missing the point with my argument on artificial scarcity. I largely agree with Surge because he recognizes that creating an item drought is only possible with comparatively matching demand. The only way it can happen, though, bolsters your own point--the item can't be that rare to begin with. The reasons hammers isn't a great example is that (1) you're right, they're rarer by a wide margin than Canthan staves for example; but also (2) there's low demand. And honestly, rarity and price manipulation are antithetical other than very rare, discrete examples. The reason for this is that (truly) very rare items are probably too rare to have high associated demand. Y'all must remember watching Q8+5e swords all being bought for 50-100e, then being sold for 100-500e? This wasn't just one trader, at least three had banked up the widely available population of these items and then repackaged them. People paid high prices because these are popular items, regardless of their actual rarity which as a set of mods isn't extraordinary. What you have to remember is that for an item to be hoardable and manipulatiable it has to be rare, but not insanely rare. It has to be mass marketable after all--let's take my or Oofus or Ikkis collection of Fire Ele Wand, even if we had basically all existing Q8 Fire Wands we couldn't price fix because (1) no one gives a fuck about Wands and (2) mods are not uniform throughout, because Wands and offhands are Inherently about 10x rarer than any generic pre nerf martial weapon. On the other hand, something like Canthan staves are an example of something with easy enough and uniform mod set (20/20). Because they're
not so rare, and had artificially limited supply with high demand, they're a great and easy market to manipulate. . I would know--I've had all of them and personally seen the items face fluctuating value as collections filled. So I suppose I should have clarified, I did not and would never imply that you or Kabong created an artificial hammer scarcity. And, moreover, if you did there is not enough of a market to have it matter. That's why I think Surge is a bit off base RE dual reduc, but I am not a subject matter expert, so I'll let that slide.

That's all to say this--if 20/20 Wands were as common as 20/20 staves, they'd be much easier to value inflate. You just can't do it with something ultra rare. It's contingent on a lot of things being sold at certain prices to create demand.

Anyway, I still maintain the biggest culprit for such rampant price inflation is botting and ingame gold buying. But Ikki is right, even indirectly, most active collectors and traders have benefited from this fact. I would never have gotten my Q9 20/20 Fire Dragon if people didn't bot them like crazy (salty as I am that so many people have it now....), no one would be selling items like Q8 bows for 200a unless gold buyers had spiked the economy, etc. Hell, even beyond that a lot of great items were only made available to their owners via hacking, or trade mod fuckery, etc. My disagreement with Ikki is that I unequivocally think that despite the clear benefits, this stuff really hurts the game. Most people, I think, agree and wish it would stop.

Anyway I doubt we have many real solutions available but I sure do like talking it out on the forums

Fuck me theres some right novels wrote in here.

1. Never merch a prenerf item
2. Love one another
3. Dont do drugs

Quote from Blink316

Fuck me theres some right novels wrote in here.

1. Never merch a prenerf item
2. Love one another
3. Dont do drugs*

*unless prescribed to you and/or legal in your state/country

Ok, fixed ;P

As this relates to the subject of "today's market", I would like to put this question out there to see what your thoughts are for curiosity sakes.

I don't recall this being mentioned in the prior replies (I apologize if it was and I missed it), how do you think customizing an item impacts the market value?

I am not at all saying this action is right or wrong. It's a function available to all players in the game. I understand that this is done to lock items into personal collections. On the other hand it also takes the item out of circulation.

Thoughts?

Well for some items it increases the value.
But I did it mostly to annoy people because they can't get the item anymore lol

Here's what I think--customizing an item is a symbol of dedication. It indicates that you aren't in it for the money. It might change the market, but I seriously doubt people who do it care about how it hits the market. Uncustod items are like liquid wealth. Custod items are inert from an economic POV.

Also they make you somewhat safer from hacks

I think the price difference between a dedicated ghostly hero and undedicated one is the most rediculous thing I've heard.
The price goes up nearly 70% if you wan't an undedicated one and it is so much easier to find a undedicated one in the market.
That's my only input in the thread, since I don't buy my weapons (neither a mini pet, since it makes no sense to ask for such a hyper inflated item which gives no benefits)

For Ghostly hero, i belive minipets with "ingame source" thats normal act of prices, ppl no longer dedicating the pets so it is hard find ded one, (Same goes polar, peacekeepers etc) But unded has the status on it (Probably because some minis without ingame source such as zippy, panda, yeti) are significally rarer unded so ppl think all minis as 1 group how to value them (Same could go for all q8s being rare eventho others are super rare and others arent) And it just shows there are alot more things driving the prices.

For Customizing i personally customize almost everything, or atleast used to and ive had alot critizism for it, i dont rly see the problem on it tho because the chance the items leave me even if i dont customize them are quite small.

It does effect on price for items that are pretty much 1 of a kind because theres high change none will be ever sold again, but who knows whats like that anyway, time has shown many items what ppl though to be last sold ever, well havent been even close and many new ones have been sold after.

The reasoning why ppl customize items has nothing to do with market changing.

Also, for many collectors like myself i can say buying customized item isnt problem, and i think thats the way collecting is moving anyway, its different for ppl and items that would actually be used, but i dare speak for 99% of the (limited) OS collectors here and say noneone ever uses items theyve collected, having it customized on you only shows it that you bought it 1st, or had the balls custo it 1st.
I bought just month ago uncond q11 14% longsword for 60a, it was customized to someone else and i dont have problem with that, I do also have other customized items ive bought for xx arms recenty, it doesnt stop me from getting items i want.

Edit@ I wanted add here this isnt rly a new thing, for several years allready ive had offers that are significant amounths of ecto for several items that are customized to me, and ive seen other ppl buy customized rare items for years too but the amounth is definetly rising.

And that this will not be the case for all items definetly, only the really rare collectibles,stuff like staffs and wands example that are still mainly bought for use and arent limited probably wont have intrest as customized even in future.

edit2@ Bottom line here is that the market is evolving and ppl are starting collect new kinds of items so ppl need to forget the old ways of thinkin whats crap or collectible, and open their mind for new ways to look at things.

-Pleikki

Quote from Pleikki

For Ghostly hero, i belive minipets with "ingame source" thats normal act of prices, ppl no longer dedicating the pets so it is hard find ded one, (Same goes polar, peacekeepers etc) But unded has the status on it (Probably because some minis without ingame source such as zippy, panda, yeti) are significally rarer unded so ppl think all minis as 1 group how to value them (Same could go for all q8s being rare eventho others are super rare and others arent) And it just shows there are alot more things driving the prices.

-Pleikki

I just wanted to say that having a pet (un)dedicated or not has no value to me. You can still use the minipet as you intend to. The excessive price increase is just stupid, because if you'd use it for points in your HoM you'd use a cheaper minipet.

One could go further and just say that the whole excess price of mini-pets in general is stupid. Not just the price gap between a dedicated and an undedicated. So you draw the line quite arbitrarily of what is crazy and what isn't. That being said, I understand that. The only point of a minipet besides showing off is to dedicate it in your hall of monuments. So a minipet that can still be dedicated serves it's only useful purpose still. So it should be worth quite a bit more. Just my opinion.

1. Market is dead and stagnant for oldschool items, time and time again when i think about it there isn't a good reason to offload oldschool items, this is caused by inflation and the lack of gold sinks in the game, making currencies like armbraces and ectos worthless.

2. Customizing prenerf items has made the market stale, less items moving around, it is basically making certain category of items extinct.
this tied with inflation leads to exorbitant prices on certain remaining items, it's not good for the buyer and especially the seller(imo).

it's quite sad to see the games market compared to 10 years ago, but thats a hell alot of time. everythign had a value to it back then.

Hey Yuko

Of course, I agree with your point about demand. If there's no market for an item, there will be no perception of rarity, regardless of objective rarity. Markets always move based on perception...and people's interests have a lot to do with what they bother perceiving.

I also agree with zxc. Customization has done more than anything to produce artificial scarcity. The problem seems to have gotten so extreme that, as Pleikki notes, it's actually created a market for customized items. That didn't really used to be a thing.

You can customize all the mini-pets you want. I think it should be illegal to customize museum-quality items. You shouldn't be able to scrawl your character's name across a piece of art.

You should know better, you soulless, self-centered fucks.

i would actually wish that they introduced an update to automatically uncustomize an item after 6 months or a year. it may be the best solution to pump a bit of life into the collector scene. there's nothing else to lose on anets part.

Quote from zxc

i would actually wish that they introduced an update to automatically uncustomize an item after 6 months or a year. it may be the best solution to pump a bit of life into the collector scene. there's nothing else to lose on anets part.

Tho i would rather add like trader you could uncustomize items from, which would pump the crazy amounths of currency from game, example price could be 25a+250e, many os items would still be alot more valuable but it would decrease significantly amounth of arms/ectos in game so the cash value would stay in more realistic amounths, with ectos and armbraces devaluating otherwise we would soon see "normal high end items" selling 1000arms because noneone using armbraces for their actual use, torm weps, or ectos to obby armors.

No, customization is permanent. Being able to uncustomize 10 years later would just cause meyham.

"Remember your q8 15^50 sword that used to be the only uncustomized one? Well now there are 5 of them."

"Remember your q8 15^50 dead bow that used to be the only uncustomized one and thus a priceless treasure? Well now there are 5 of them."

Customization is forever and it should be.

meh i dont think that matters, i wouldnt see meyham coming, atleast i wouldnt care if ppl got the items i allready got.

I think it would only effect the few quickest ppl that could snap some few items that MAYBE someone got custod someting they dont like anymore and would sell it, most likely noneone would like sell items theyve got customized even if they were uncustod..

i think after all its about getting items you like rarity is irrelevant atleast to me i dont care if theres 5 of them uncustod around or if its the only one when its someting i just want to own.

The hacking issue yes, tho as said there is allready small market for customized items so it isnt 100% safe way keep ur items as safety measure by customizing them either now, it would just do greater good for hackers and maybe attract new ppl into that, but at this late in game and all i dont rly think there are any "hackers" left unless theres another breach from arenanet.

Quote from Surge goes pre

No, customization is permanent. Being able to uncustomize 10 years later would just cause meyham.

"Remember your q8 15^50 sword that used to be the only uncustomized one? Well now there are 5 of them."

"Remember your q8 15^50 dead bow that used to be the only uncustomized one and thus a priceless treasure? Well now there are 5 of them."

Customization is forever and it should be.

"Remember that mini Zhed you bought for 1600e back when ecto actually mattered? Well now it drops from birthday presents."

It wouldn't be the first time they do something crazy like that, messing up the market/economy...