HM Outcast Chest Run Data From 48,204 Chests(Rhea's)

  • Gold/Purple/Tome Totals
    Gold Items30333
    Purple Items12869
    Regular Tomes2414
    Elite Tomes2408
    Total Items In Drop Pool

    71

    Accursed Icon
    Assassin Tome
    Bleached Skull
    Bone Idol
    Broadsword
    Ceremonial Cauldron
    Channeling Focus
    Colossal Pick
    Dadao Sword
    Divine Scroll
    Divine Symbol
    Earth Scroll
    Eerie Focus
    Elementalist Tome
    Elite Assassin Tome
    Elite Elementalist Tome
    Elite Mesmer Tome
    Elite Monk Tome
    Elite Necromancer Tome
    Elite Ranger Tome
    Elite Ritualist Tome
    Elite Warrior Tome
    Falchion
    Fellblade
    Fiery Dragon Sword
    Flamberge
    Flame Artifact
    Frost Artifact
    Gilded Artifact
    Gladius
    Golden Chalice
    Grim Cesta
    Hallowed Idol
    Hand Axe
    Healing Ankh
    Hooked Daggers
    Idol
    Inscribed Chakram
    Jade Axe
    Jade Daggers
    Jade Hammer
    Jade Longbow
    Jade Sword
    Jade Wand
    Jeweled Chalice
    Jeweled Chakram
    Jitte
    Jug
    Katana
    Long Sword
    Mesmer Tome
    Monk Tome
    Necromancer Tome
    Ominous Eidolon
    Outcast Boots
    Outcast Bracers
    Outcast Shield
    Outcast Staff
    Outcast Wrappings
    Paper Fan
    Paper Lantern
    Protective Icon
    Ranger Tome
    Ritualist Tome
    Shinobi Blade
    Spatha
    Storm Artifact
    Warrior Tome
    Wingblade Sword
    Writhing Focus
    Detailed Item Counts

    ItemGoldPurple
    Accursed Icon15759
    Bleached Skull5536
    Bone Idol6125
    Broadsword034
    Ceremonial Cauldron4116
    Channeling Focus5119
    Colossal Pick529216
    Dadao Sword032
    Divine Scroll4719
    Divine Symbol15969
    Earth Scroll19196
    Eerie Focus6322
    Falchion037
    Fellblade040
    Fiery Dragon Sword040
    Flamberge042
    Flame Artifact19380
    Frost Artifact15372
    Gilded Artifact4728
    Gladius031
    Golden Chalice4823
    Grim Cesta20187
    Hallowed Idol5213
    Hand Axe2700
    Healing Ankh21598
    Hooked Daggers336172
    Idol224106
    Inscribed Chakram20278
    Jade Axe813459
    Jade Daggers745296
    Jade Hammer564222
    Jade Longbow2140902
    Jade Sword10490
    Jade Wand42891825
    Jeweled Chalice21196
    Jeweled Chakram211101
    Jitte034
    Jug5420
    Katana041
    Long Sword041
    Ominous Eidolon5023
    Outcast Boots1365587
    Outcast Bracers1356568
    Outcast Shield1113437
    Outcast Staff43411827
    Outcast Wrappings82363490
    Paper Fan5819
    Paper Lantern134
    Protective Icon17075
    Shinobi Blade020
    Spatha030
    Storm Artifact209103
    Wingblade Sword034
    Writhing Focus5125
    Detailed Elite Tome Counts
    Elite Assassin Tome294
    Elite Elementalist Tome284
    Elite Mesmer Tome325
    Elite Monk Tome292
    Elite Necromancer Tome288
    Elite Ranger Tome293
    Elite Ritualist Tome315
    Elite Warrior Tome317
    Regular Tome Counts
    Assassin Tome302
    Elementalist Tome305
    Mesmer Tome290
    Monk Tome291
    Necromancer Tome314
    Ranger Tome322
    Ritualist Tome287
    Warrior Tome303
    Chance For Rare Outcast Shield To Drop Based On Sample

    2.317591204

    ????????????????????????

    Why does this chest not have access to the core drop table?

    Why do Jade Swords only drop as rare?

    Why do some skins only drop as Uncommon?

    Why are Outcast shields never good mods?

    More Detailed Req & Mod & Skin logging coming soon. Please let me know if you see an error with the data or what you'd like to see researched & documented. The project goal is to find out exactly how rare items are.

  • WoW, that's a lot of lockpicks !

    -Why does this chest not have access to the core drop table?

    You've some faction core items there (jug, paper lantern, katana, ...)

    Maybe it cannot overlap between core/faction/outcast, it would be too much.

    -Why do Jade Swords only drop as rare? / Why do some skins only drop as Uncommon?

    That's a really good question

    -Why are Outcast shields never good mods?

    It makes me think to Magmas shield, maybe that's the way devs coded it, just a lower chance of perfect mods


    Does those datas are from the whole map? or only the "first few" chests (typically from the ones next to the res shrine?)

    Not that it shouldn't change anything, but just out of curiosity.

  • Ok, I was asking because with what we know (think we know) it shouldn't influence the drops.

    However (but that's just a theory of mine) :

    -the chests are generated when the instance is created (i'm 100% sure of that)

    -The items contained in the chests, and the order they will drop is also determined when you enter the map (the fact you can drop 2-3-... of the same tome when you group with several players/chars and "empty" the chest make me think this way. There isn't a dice roll everytime someone open the chest)

    -The items drop rate (especially shields) could be higher than we thought IF my second point is valid ( shields drop rates are around 4-5% usually) but it could be more in the scenario of 8 players/chars open the chest(s). (but it doesn't change the chance of 1 player getting a shield, just the drop rate)

    Most of the datas we have are from 1 char opening the chests

    What if 8 toons open the chests ?

  • What if we stop using bots? Maybe the drop might be better (or the karma in any case). I'm already out -> [ ]

  • even if this is bot data, it's a good thing to have access to it... Most botters wouldn't have put this public or even bothered collecting data, which gives quite a clearer information than 250 chests vids some ppl may have done. So thanks for this !

  • So we got to the stage where botters are so prevalent and so unconcerned about consequences they brazenly post the data from there ill gotten gains.

    Sad, really sad.


    So we got to the stage where botters are so prevalent and so unconcerned about consequences they brazenly post a 500 weapons giveaway and a lot of people went to claim it..

    Sad, really sad.


    For me data are more precious to try understand the game i love than to complete my collection and make my peepee hard

  • I understand.

    The thing is (especially if you did it yourself) collecting enough data to even try to understand the game mechanics will take for ever and probably never end.

    And what ether did is only on one area, even tho it has some similitude with others, it can be completely different in the next one.

    If you are brave enough to collect that much data and share it, i'll clap for you.

    Reality is sadly different, not enough players to achieve this kind of project.

    I'm against botters, but we can try whatever we want they will always be here.

    So i'm much happier to have some results like this than a "free" weapon

  • this thread makes me really mad.

    i used to love the rheas outcast chest run and did a lot of runs (but no where close to 48k) before i found out it gets botted massively.

    nice , now do on Magmas aswell :)

    hehehe OP is mad he cant do it because after 5 tries he will be so frustrated that he keeps dying and will quit to start his bots to do "useful research" xD

    More Detailed Req & Mod & Skin logging coming soon. Please let me know if you see an error with the data or what you'd like to see researched & documented. The project goal is to find out exactly how rare items are.

    no thanks you can keep those irrelevant info for yourself as far as im concerned. you wont find out how rare items are by botting 1 chest close to the shrine. if you continue the run for example there are oni chests and oni weapons + armor and jelly fish wands etc. will affect the drop rate. Sometimes i dropped 3 q9 outcast shields in one day the other day none , but you cant say that if you open 1k chests there will be x amount q9 and x amount gold or purples ones. its just luck and maybe karma.

    well you found out some items drop only common or uncommon but if you want to farm skins like jitte, katana or similiar nobody would recommend doing jade sea chest runs for it. way better to go to areas with smaller drop table and you will get them there

    why do jade swords only drop as rare? because devs coded it that way, if you want purple just kill some enemies and you will get enough purple jade swords

    why are outcast shields never good mods? lol. you got a bit over 1k outcast chests and complain you dont have good mods on them. im sure there were a lot good modded shields but maybe you just cant see the value in them. as i said i used to run this chest run a lot and eventually i saw a guy named "sideshow trenchcoat" he was there 24/7 doing the run too. sometimes i met him in kamadan and he gave away all his non perfect modded outcast shields for free, occaisionally i took them and sold them for several hundred ectos, just a story from long time ago

    lastly i will answer you your question "how rare items exactly are" with another question: are any weapons or items rare to you anyways? you bot them its not like you play the game to obtain them, you dont "work" for them the only thing you do is write down some data. I used to get small boosts of excitement everytime i dropped an outcast shield or identified it. i wonder if you have had any emotional reaction on it when you identfied your shields...

    Nowadays it only needs 1 or 2 more people like you doing the same run and the small market would be oversaturated with outcast shields and their value will become even less. i played like 2+ years to have enough money to buy an asia pet for me for 1,3k arms i could have just bought 1,3k arms somewhere online by spending money i earn in a few days, but that would have been retarded, so i didnt do it. i decided to play the game because i like it. and all i need to know that chest drop rare items less than non rare items and with a bit of luck and enough time the game will reward you.

    Edit: serached kamdan chat log and found a screenshot. its only from 3years ago, but he already did it back around 2014 or so but there is no chat log, wonder if any1 knows who this is? maybe op?

  • cringe

  • cringe

    cringe

    maybe you can provide Ether with some dragon moss bot data? he will be very thankful

    Edited once, last by RyGerhardt (March 3, 2021 at 5:21 PM).

  • "The project goal is to find out exactly how rare items are"

    Ether

    Isnt this a touch pointless? Such data is of little use if it makes no diffrence to ur choices. What does it matter if you can show the Outcast drop rate is 0.1% rather than 0.2%? The result is the same, to get an Outcast shield that isn't gona get merched you playing the lottery with lockpicks. No amount of you opening the same chests is going to change the already known fact that if you want a good one u open an outcast chest and pray. This will be the same result wherever you go "data collecting" which in terms of possible locations is going to be very limited anyway. At best you going to find some interesting little known bits of info (Skin XYZ drops from this chest but not in purple).

    If you wana do it, fill ya boots but the outcome will have almost no effect on anything. People will still run Pongmei for Q8, Rea's for Outcasts, tasca for sws/sws, hells for magams ect ect ect. Or maybe they won't bother cause competing with a cheater thats flooding the market with the once "rare" item u farming isn't all that appealing of a proposition.

    PS. Looking forward to you saying to people "You have to pay 20a for this item nobody bid above 3a because is super rare 0.001% drop chance". That's gona be awsome to watch ;)

    IGN: Pyro Loves Lobsters

  • i saw a guy named "sideshow trenchcoat" he was there 24/7 doing the run too. sometimes i met him in kamadan and he gave away all his non perfect modded outcast shields for free, occaisionally i took them and sold them for several hundred ectos, just a story from long time ago

    so botting is bad, but taking free items from botters to sell it yourself is ok ?

    I'm a bit confused here

  • So we got to the stage where botters are so prevalent and so unconcerned about consequences they brazenly post a 500 weapons giveaway and a lot of people went to claim it..

    I'm not a botter. And, yes, they were brazenly given away to the community by me because the OP takes from the community by negatively impacting the economy. That's not to say what the OP is doing currently is good or bad, just that this point, TongTong , is invalid and pointed in the wrong direction.

    so botting is bad, but taking free items from botters to sell it yourself is ok ?

    I'm a bit confused here

    The game, much like real life, is full of hypocrisy. I'm done trying to understand it. Just do what feels right with the time we are given. :)

    Isnt this a touch pointless?

    Just a touch. The unknown is what makes it fun. If we knew everything, where would the fun be in playing? ;)

    Please let me know if you see an error with the data or what you'd like to see researched & documented. The project goal is to find out exactly how rare items are.

    For players, the only information useful from your data is the potential discovery of drop rates for a specific item in one location versus another. So, if paper lanterns drop in one location more commonly than another, then it would be useful knowledge for a player looking for paper lanterns to know where to look.

    If you really want to be useful to the community, you need to take it a step further than providing drop rates taken to insignificant decimal places. :heart:

  • I'm not a botter. And, yes, they were brazenly given away to the community by me because the OP takes from the community by negatively impacting the economy. That's not to say what the OP is doing currently is good or bad, just that this point, TongTong , is invalid and pointed in the wrong direction.

    The game, much like real life, is full of hypocrisy. I'm done trying to understand it. Just do what feels right with the time we are given. :)

    Just a touch. The unknown is what makes it fun. If we knew everything, where would the fun be in playing? ;)

    For players, the only information useful from your data is the potential discovery of drop rates for a specific item in one location versus another. So, if paper lanterns drop in one location more commonly than another, then it would be useful knowledge for a player looking for paper lanterns to know where to look.

    If you really want to be useful to the community, you need to take it a step further than providing drop rates taken to insignificant decimal places. :heart:

    LOL

    Maybe you don't bot.

    But YES you did sell botted items, when fully aware of their provenance.

    By negatively impacting the economy ? Being the middle man, you actively participate to it.

    The last 500 items were given away, what about the first 500's or more ?

    Hypocrisis ? Yeah....

    This giveaway was just for you a way to clear your name, knowing that people who accepted it couldn't say a word after.

    You try to make yourself a hero to the community when you are an accomplish, a receiver, you name it.

    Man, you should go into politics.

  • 1. There is no maybe. I don’t bot. I don’t even use toolbox. Nor do I condemn those who do. This is just my preference.

    2. Yes, I sold his botted items. As I mentioned, I was doing what felt right with the time I was given. I would do it again. If that makes me a terrible capitalist, so be it.

    3. If you really think I was blind to the negative impact it had on the economy, you’re misjudging entirely.

    4. I would be a hypocrite if I condemned Ether ’s (Ryn’s) actions. I don’t. Infact, I gave him useful feedback despite our differences and failed business relationships. Other than useless questions, where was yours?

    5. That giveaway was by NO means a manner of “clearing” my name. It never needed cleared in the first place. I’ll let me actions speak for themselves. I stated the purpose for that giveaway in the thread: to clear my conscience of the failed business relationship. The only other option was to trash the items, but I also don’t agree with abortion, so I gave the items meaning to the community.

    6. TongTong this was not an attack on you. Don’t read into it too much. I say what I mean and I mean what I say.

    7. Politicians wouldn’t want me in politics. Work might actually get accomplished.

    8. Bluey  Invokeur :*

    Have a good day everyone! ;)

  • 1. Fair enough.

    2. What felt right and do it again ? hmm that's questionnable

    3. Deliberately doing it against the community then

    4. I must have missed those usefull feedbacks, unless that's part of your business agreement that you made privately.

    5. Useless questions ? Sorry to try to understand his data, and have all the informations needed, something can be obvious for you that aren't for others

    6. Clear you conscience ? So you know there was something wrong (see point 2 and 3)

    7. Capitalism imply rules and regulations, i'm not sure it apply there