HM Outcast Chest Run Data From 48,204 Chests(Rhea's)

WoW, that's a lot of lockpicks !

-Why does this chest not have access to the core drop table?

You've some faction core items there (jug, paper lantern, katana, ...)

Maybe it cannot overlap between core/faction/outcast, it would be too much.

-Why do Jade Swords only drop as rare? / Why do some skins only drop as Uncommon?

That's a really good question

-Why are Outcast shields never good mods?

It makes me think to Magmas shield, maybe that's the way devs coded it, just a lower chance of perfect mods

Does those datas are from the whole map? or only the "first few" chests (typically from the ones next to the res shrine?)

Not that it shouldn't change anything, but just out of curiosity.

Ok, I was asking because with what we know (think we know) it shouldn't influence the drops.

However (but that's just a theory of mine) :

-the chests are generated when the instance is created (i'm 100% sure of that)

-The items contained in the chests, and the order they will drop is also determined when you enter the map (the fact you can drop 2-3-... of the same tome when you group with several players/chars and "empty" the chest make me think this way. There isn't a dice roll everytime someone open the chest)

-The items drop rate (especially shields) could be higher than we thought IF my second point is valid ( shields drop rates are around 4-5% usually) but it could be more in the scenario of 8 players/chars open the chest(s). (but it doesn't change the chance of 1 player getting a shield, just the drop rate)

Most of the datas we have are from 1 char opening the chests

What if 8 toons open the chests ?

What if we stop using bots? Maybe the drop might be better (or the karma in any case). I'm already out -> [ ]

even if this is bot data, it's a good thing to have access to it... Most botters wouldn't have put this public or even bothered collecting data, which gives quite a clearer information than 250 chests vids some ppl may have done. So thanks for this !

Quote from Invokeur

even if this is bot data, it's a good thing to have access to it... Most botters wouldn't have put this public or even bothered collecting data, which gives quite a clearer information than 250 chests vids some ppl may have done. So thanks for this !

I agree

nice , now do on Magmas aswell

So we got to the stage where botters are so prevalent and so unconcerned about consequences they brazenly post the data from there ill gotten gains.

Sad, really sad.

Quote from PyroLobster

So we got to the stage where botters are so prevalent and so unconcerned about consequences they brazenly post the data from there ill gotten gains.

Sad, really sad.

So we got to the stage where botters are so prevalent and so unconcerned about consequences they brazenly post a 500 weapons giveaway and a lot of people went to claim it..

Sad, really sad.

For me data are more precious to try understand the game i love than to complete my collection and make my peepee hard

I'm all for more data, collect a lot of it myself and find this very interesting.

I'm all for ending botting completely.

Hope this clarifies my positions

I understand.

The thing is (especially if you did it yourself) collecting enough data to even try to understand the game mechanics will take for ever and probably never end.

And what ether did is only on one area, even tho it has some similitude with others, it can be completely different in the next one.

If you are brave enough to collect that much data and share it, i'll clap for you.

Reality is sadly different, not enough players to achieve this kind of project.

I'm against botters, but we can try whatever we want they will always be here.

So i'm much happier to have some results like this than a "free" weapon

Quote from RyGerhardt

this thread makes me really mad.

i used to love the rheas outcast chest run and did a lot of runs (but no where close to 48k) before i found out it gets botted massively.

hehehe OP is mad he cant do it because after 5 tries he will be so frustrated that he keeps dying and will quit to start his bots to do "useful research" xD

no thanks you can keep those irrelevant info for yourself as far as im concerned. you wont find out how rare items are by botting 1 chest close to the shrine. if you continue the run for example there are oni chests and oni weapons + armor and jelly fish wands etc. will affect the drop rate. Sometimes i dropped 3 q9 outcast shields in one day the other day none , but you cant say that if you open 1k chests there will be x amount q9 and x amount gold or purples ones. its just luck and maybe karma.

well you found out some items drop only common or uncommon but if you want to farm skins like jitte, katana or similiar nobody would recommend doing jade sea chest runs for it. way better to go to areas with smaller drop table and you will get them there

why do jade swords only drop as rare? because devs coded it that way, if you want purple just kill some enemies and you will get enough purple jade swords

why are outcast shields never good mods? lol. you got a bit over 1k outcast chests and complain you dont have good mods on them. im sure there were a lot good modded shields but maybe you just cant see the value in them. as i said i used to run this chest run a lot and eventually i saw a guy named "sideshow trenchcoat" he was there 24/7 doing the run too. sometimes i met him in kamadan and he gave away all his non perfect modded outcast shields for free, occaisionally i took them and sold them for several hundred ectos, just a story from long time ago

lastly i will answer you your question "how rare items exactly are" with another question: are any weapons or items rare to you anyways? you bot them its not like you play the game to obtain them, you dont "work" for them the only thing you do is write down some data. I used to get small boosts of excitement everytime i dropped an outcast shield or identified it. i wonder if you have had any emotional reaction on it when you identfied your shields...

Nowadays it only needs 1 or 2 more people like you doing the same run and the small market would be oversaturated with outcast shields and their value will become even less. i played like 2+ years to have enough money to buy an asia pet for me for 1,3k arms i could have just bought 1,3k arms somewhere online by spending money i earn in a few days, but that would have been retarded, so i didnt do it. i decided to play the game because i like it. and all i need to know that chest drop rare items less than non rare items and with a bit of luck and enough time the game will reward you.

Edit: serached kamdan chat log and found a screenshot. its only from 3years ago, but he already did it back around 2014 or so but there is no chat log, wonder if any1 knows who this is? maybe op?

Display More

cringe

"The project goal is to find out exactly how rare items are"

Ether

Isnt this a touch pointless? Such data is of little use if it makes no diffrence to ur choices. What does it matter if you can show the Outcast drop rate is 0.1% rather than 0.2%? The result is the same, to get an Outcast shield that isn't gona get merched you playing the lottery with lockpicks. No amount of you opening the same chests is going to change the already known fact that if you want a good one u open an outcast chest and pray. This will be the same result wherever you go "data collecting" which in terms of possible locations is going to be very limited anyway. At best you going to find some interesting little known bits of info (Skin XYZ drops from this chest but not in purple).

If you wana do it, fill ya boots but the outcome will have almost no effect on anything. People will still run Pongmei for Q8, Rea's for Outcasts, tasca for sws/sws, hells for magams ect ect ect. Or maybe they won't bother cause competing with a cheater thats flooding the market with the once "rare" item u farming isn't all that appealing of a proposition.

PS. Looking forward to you saying to people "You have to pay 20a for this item nobody bid above 3a because is super rare 0.001% drop chance". That's gona be awsome to watch

Quote from RyGerhardt

i saw a guy named "sideshow trenchcoat" he was there 24/7 doing the run too. sometimes i met him in kamadan and he gave away all his non perfect modded outcast shields for free, occaisionally i took them and sold them for several hundred ectos, just a story from long time ago

so botting is bad, but taking free items from botters to sell it yourself is ok ?

I'm a bit confused here

Quote from TongTong

So we got to the stage where botters are so prevalent and so unconcerned about consequences they brazenly post a 500 weapons giveaway and a lot of people went to claim it..

I'm not a botter. And, yes, they were brazenly given away to the community by me because the OP takes from the community by negatively impacting the economy. That's not to say what the OP is doing currently is good or bad, just that this point, TongTong , is invalid and pointed in the wrong direction.

Quote from TongTong

so botting is bad, but taking free items from botters to sell it yourself is ok ?

I'm a bit confused here

The game, much like real life, is full of hypocrisy. I'm done trying to understand it. Just do what feels right with the time we are given.

Quote from PyroLobster

Isnt this a touch pointless?

Just a touch. The unknown is what makes it fun. If we knew everything, where would the fun be in playing?

Quote from Ether

Please let me know if you see an error with the data or what you'd like to see researched & documented. The project goal is to find out exactly how rare items are.

For players, the only information useful from your data is the potential discovery of drop rates for a specific item in one location versus another. So, if paper lanterns drop in one location more commonly than another, then it would be useful knowledge for a player looking for paper lanterns to know where to look.

If you really want to be useful to the community, you need to take it a step further than providing drop rates taken to insignificant decimal places.

Quote from Purely

I'm not a botter. And, yes, they were brazenly given away to the community by me because the OP takes from the community by negatively impacting the economy. That's not to say what the OP is doing currently is good or bad, just that this point, TongTong , is invalid and pointed in the wrong direction.

The game, much like real life, is full of hypocrisy. I'm done trying to understand it. Just do what feels right with the time we are given.

Just a touch. The unknown is what makes it fun. If we knew everything, where would the fun be in playing?

For players, the only information useful from your data is the potential discovery of drop rates for a specific item in one location versus another. So, if paper lanterns drop in one location more commonly than another, then it would be useful knowledge for a player looking for paper lanterns to know where to look.

If you really want to be useful to the community, you need to take it a step further than providing drop rates taken to insignificant decimal places.

LOL

Maybe you don't bot.

But YES you did sell botted items, when fully aware of their provenance.

By negatively impacting the economy ? Being the middle man, you actively participate to it.

The last 500 items were given away, what about the first 500's or more ?

Hypocrisis ? Yeah....

This giveaway was just for you a way to clear your name, knowing that people who accepted it couldn't say a word after.

You try to make yourself a hero to the community when you are an accomplish, a receiver, you name it.

Man, you should go into politics.

Quote from TongTong

LOL

Maybe you don't bot.

But YES you did sell botted items, when fully aware of their provenance.

By negatively impacting the economy ? Being the middle man, you actively participate to it.

The last 500 items were given away, what about the first 500's or more ?

Hypocrisis ? Yeah....

This giveaway was just for you a way to clear your name, knowing that people who accepted it couldn't say a word after.

You try to make yourself a hero to the community when you are an accomplish, a receiver, you name it.

Man, you should go into politics.

Display More

1. There is no maybe. I don’t bot. I don’t even use toolbox. Nor do I condemn those who do. This is just my preference.

2. Yes, I sold his botted items. As I mentioned, I was doing what felt right with the time I was given. I would do it again. If that makes me a terrible capitalist, so be it.

3. If you really think I was blind to the negative impact it had on the economy, you’re misjudging entirely.

4. I would be a hypocrite if I condemned Ether ’s (Ryn’s) actions. I don’t. Infact, I gave him useful feedback despite our differences and failed business relationships. Other than useless questions, where was yours?

5. That giveaway was by NO means a manner of “clearing” my name. It never needed cleared in the first place. I’ll let me actions speak for themselves. I stated the purpose for that giveaway in the thread: to clear my conscience of the failed business relationship. The only other option was to trash the items, but I also don’t agree with abortion, so I gave the items meaning to the community.

6. TongTong this was not an attack on you. Don’t read into it too much. I say what I mean and I mean what I say.

7. Politicians wouldn’t want me in politics. Work might actually get accomplished.

8. Bluey  Invokeur

Have a good day everyone!

1. Fair enough.

2. What felt right and do it again ? hmm that's questionnable

3. Deliberately doing it against the community then

4. I must have missed those usefull feedbacks, unless that's part of your business agreement that you made privately.

5. Useless questions ? Sorry to try to understand his data, and have all the informations needed, something can be obvious for you that aren't for others

6. Clear you conscience ? So you know there was something wrong (see point 2 and 3)

7. Capitalism imply rules and regulations, i'm not sure it apply there