The impact of minimum expected values in a price check

Quote from MaxBorken

I’m saying this as a trader, not a Mod. Pleikki please don’t say things like this for a price check. It sets unrealistic expectations. Just because you wouldn’t sell for less doesn’t mean the owner wouldn’t. The price these could sell for might not be worth it to you, but to others that could be a colossal amount of money and enough to achieve more than they could expect in this game. Your minimum, as a wealthy and seasoned trader, is likely to be very different from someone who hasn’t got unlimited wealth.

You’re basically picking a random number out of thin air which you’d be happy with and applying that number out of context to the seller, whose circumstances could be very different from your own. It’s misleading, and you’re making huge assumptions about the seller.

“This item could sell for X” is fine.

“I wouldn’t sell below X” sets unrealistic expectations.

And your standard reply of “in my experience” or “over time I’ve sold these for” just isn’t relevant in these circumstances. Just stick to what it could be worth, not your own out-of-context random minimum sale prices. It’s misleading and sets unrealistic expectations.

Hey, thank you for your feedback as fellow trader.

I am here trying to figure out the motivation for this feedback tho, could you enlighten me?

With my price checks, i am trying help people returning best i can, i use reference prices and personal opinions because i dont know of better way to put some numbers up, or should i really put them from thin air?

Yes, i know some assumptions are made, but the main point on price check section is gather opinions, im not only only one giving price checks and everyone else is free to do so also. All i am trying to do is avoid these people returning to get ripped of spectacularly, in todays market it doesnt work saying "post for sale" since only 1/5 cases or less the prices actually reach to number items can with time and ingame selling etc, since the market is dead.

Should the newcomer or guy returning be the one paying for that? I personally think the older community, traders collectors and ppl buying rarer items should help the people returning with paying fair price for their possibly only thing valuable, why should the ppl buying be the ones gaining profits?

i've had alot thanks for my price checks from returning ppl, and theyve told me how bad some others treated them and didnt want to come back because of that, i only get negative comments from the wealthy people who want buy things cheap and take advantage of the new comers.

Until there is better way to help the ppl, i will keep using minimal prices, its minimal price for a reason so i wouldn't put unrealistic hopes, because in many cases things sell much higher then those, but in the end its the owners decision to let go item for less or more, i dont take that away from the people with using reference prices, im simply trying the best i can help those who ask for help.

This is a true tragedy. We'd call that "un geste digne d'un histrion" in French.

As far as I can tell based on posts. Pleikki spends his/her? time giving out price checks.

By the way, enlighten me with your Wisdom if I'm mistaken but I don't think there's any set price per weapons in guild wars other than the merchant value, so I don't really get where you're coming from with things pulled out of thin air since we all do when we pay for something ?

He/She's just giving his/her opinion, now if you dislike it you can just go through PM so you won't get backslashes from me .

Once again, thank you for this magnificent greek tragedy.

Can't wait for Act 2 to be released for the "Unworthy, Uneducated, Incompetent, Dull, Ungifted, Unbestowed by the 6.0221415*10^23 Mightiest Sages of Guild Wars " player common folk that I am.

Quote from MaxBorken

The price these could sell for might not be worth it to you, but to others that could be a colossal amount of money and enough to achieve more than they could expect in this game.

MaxBorken I hate it when those noobs know what their items are worth to us traders... They should be happy with the 2008 prices I lowball them with in Kamadan. They could get their first set of chaos gloves with that kinda money that's all they deserve anyway

I don't want to say too much about this but I do want to say something because I laughed at Speedy's post for very different reasons than Zaishen did. Just so salty.

Brushing Speedy's salt aside, I think the issue that Max was pointing to is Pleikki 's clearly stated personal policy of giving price checks in terms of an item's maximum possible value, even if that means finding one specific collector with cash burning a hole in their pocket. Pleikki was explicit about his approach to PCs in this thread. When the maximum possible value of an item is called the item's "minimum price," it creates a situation where new/returning players will get frustrated at their inability to sell for the price they've been led to expect. This creates a whole set of downstream problems that we don't need to get into on this thread (unless you really want to).

I actually *like* the idea of giving minimum prices as PCs. When I was in the business of PCing (and it *is* a business, don't fool yourselves about the altruism various price check "gurus"), I would often give them in the form of "I wouldn't sell below X." I think that's a useful format. But the amount that I gave wasn't based on the perfect sale to the perfect person under ideal conditions. It was based on what the market generally supported at the time, as far as I participated in it. I think that kind of information (preferably with some kind of documentation) is the best we can do with PCs.

Inflating expectations with prices that reflect the maximum possible value of an item sold under perfect conditions is problematic. I think that's all Max was pointing out. Maybe he was also alluding to some of the downstream problems that this kind of price check can create (which get into issues of trader ethics) but, like I said, those can be left for another flame war on another day.

Hope this helps.

I'm not salty at all, where did you get that from?

As someone who recently returned to the game and has (likely) very different expectations about what my minimum/maximum would be as compared to someone extremely seasoned like Pleikki, I find it extremely helpful when a veteran gives an honest assessment of what an item is worth to them. The person asking for the PC has the agency to determine for himself or herself whether they're going to follow the PCer's judgment: maybe they set unrealistic expectations, try to sell for a high price, and decide (maybe in disappointment) to lower them rather than hold the item until it's sold for the value that the PCer has appraised. I find this to be far more just than the alternative (and probably far more common) situation of not getting an honest PC and selling the item to a shark who PM's the person a lowball offer and snags the item far-below its actual worth. Imo, let people decide whether they have the same opinions about their items as the people who PC them. Like SC Ele said, there are no objective truths about what items are worth other than merch value, and giving more opinions with more perspectives lets people make more informed decisions and protects them from people who would buy their items below-value.

Quote from Captain Krompdown

I don't want to say too much about this but I do want to say something because I laughed at Speedy's post for very different reasons than Zaishen did. Just so salty.

Brushing Speedy's salt aside, I think the issue that Max was pointing to is Pleikki 's clearly stated personal policy of giving price checks in terms of an item's maximum possible value, even if that means finding one specific collector with cash burning a hole in their pocket. Pleikki was explicit about his approach to PCs in this thread. When the maximum possible value of an item is called the item's "minimum price," it creates a situation where new/returning players will get frustrated at their inability to sell for the price they've been led to expect. This creates a whole set of downstream problems that we don't need to get into on this thread (unless you really want to).

I actually *like* the idea of giving minimum prices as PCs. When I was in the business of PCing (and it *is* a business, don't fool yourselves about the altruism various price check "gurus"), I would often give them in the form of "I wouldn't sell below X." I think that's a useful format. But the amount that I gave wasn't based on the perfect sale to the perfect person under ideal conditions. It was based on what the market generally supported at the time, as far as I participated in it. I think that kind of information (preferably with some kind of documentation) is the best we can do with PCs.

Inflating expectations with prices that reflect the maximum possible value of an item sold under perfect conditions is problematic. I think that's all Max was pointing out. Maybe he was also alluding to some of the downstream problems that this kind of price check can create (which get into issues of trader ethics) but, like I said, those can be left for another flame war on another day.

Hope this helps.

I just want to say, i no longer PC things even close to their maximun value, but it rly is minimun value based on current market that evolves all the time, ive never said someting is minimun value and ment maximun, that thread didnt have any discussion about this issue and is out of context.

For example, thread where these posts originally were from: Fellblade OS Q8 15_50 & Longsword OS Q18 15_50 and some others

I said Minimal for q8 15¨50 fellblade 50a, when i couldve said i sold year ago one for 125a like i did, that would be that maximun over 2 x more than price check i gave was, please don't put words or thoughs from me here unless u know current situations.

I add one last thing before im done with this thread also,

market evolves and prices and ways to value things at same, but i see the difference here really is way to think / see things.

Basically i think either someone is on trader's side, when market is quiet and alot of nice items on market for traders like us to buy and there is no money to be spend after all the purchases, someone thinks prices should go down because there is only few bidders so the traders can buy every item they want, and the returning player takes the loss.

OR someone thinks on the returning players side, thinks that the allready wealthy collectors and traders can afford sell their own items, and make the sacrifices to buy the new items on market to pay fair for new things, maybe even let some of the nice things slip and admit that they cant get it all.

Iv'e got to chime in here, some of whats been said cant be left unchallenged. Pleikki

The price of an item is a subjective number put forward from a buyer and accepted by the seller. If the seller wont accept the buyers offer there is no sale and thus that price he wanted was not valid. In a nutshell prices are driven by consumers (buyers). To post something for sale on legacy is to allow in a transparent and public setting buyers to place bids and the price to be discovered. There is no better way to find the current value for something than this system. Saying it doesn't work "since only 1/5 cases or less the prices actually reach to number items can with time and ingame selling" is complete nonsense. Yes if you increase the number of potential buyers by changing effective time an item is for sale it can reach a different price, this however is irrelevant. People don't want a hypothetical guess of what an item could sell for at some unknown time in the future with some unknown buyer. This price it can be sold for in the present is the price.

If after 2 weeks the highest bid is 20a and 1 year ago the same item reached 100a then the price today is still 20a. It's not going to cheap and somebody isn't being ripped off, its the highest amount somebody is willing to pay. There is a long list of variables to account for this discrepancy, perhaps there was 10 interested buyers 1 year ago and now there is 2. It's self evident that the price today should not be reflective of a higher demand pressure from the past that at present doesn't exist. When people say "given enough time you might get "x" they are making a prediction. A prediction that in the future you will get a different price than you can today given the current market conditions. This is also ridiculously unhelpful to somebody who wants to know the value of there item now. I notice nobody has ever said "given enough time you might get "x" with x being lower than the value they assign in currently. However this is just as likely as the reverse. It's readily apparent that prices move up AND down, sometimes drastically in such an illiquid market.

I could go on for pages about this but I'll just address one more thing. You seriously have the idiocy say "the market is dead." then defend why people should expect to sell at an elevated price imagined by you to exist because why? because that is what you would aspire to sell for if the item where yours. By no measure can this by considered a price check. That's like telling somebody the housing market is dead (prices are down, lack of buyers compared to sellers) ...but if I were you I wouldn't sell that house for less than double your current offer or 2 years ago when the market wasn't dead your neighbor sold for "x". How is that helpful to somebody who a) wants to know what there house is worth now and or b) wants to sell there house now for as much as they can get currently. You're subjective minimum number is of no value to anybody but yourself, sharing it with sellers only causes frustration when that price cannot be attained because is was completely disconnected from the as then unknown fair market price.

This approach to price checking is the "better way" : Prevent ignorant people getting low balled. Not by picking a number you wouldn't sell below but very simply telling the owner they have something of high value, warn them to be weary of pm offers, be patient and perhaps gives a rough ballpark figure based on experience. Then point them at the sell thread (can take offers from kama ect also) as that's the only true way to find the current value. IMO this is the only way to deal with high end items that are not readily bought and sold so no price can be known. Yes previous sales numbers can be a guide but ultimately cannot be relied upon as a measure of current value.

Basically do not give price checks that cant be given with any degree of accuracy.

Quote

Basically do not give price checks that cant be given with any degree of accuracy.

That sounds good in theory, but with the current state of the game economy, it isn't always possible. For example, Oofus' q9 20/10 Earth Effigy that was posted in the Canthan Focus thread. What's the realistic market for an item like that? Most of the SC people with tons of arms seem to be more interested in showing their e-peen with BDS's and E-blades, so presumably there wouldn't be a ton of interest there. The only other group with the required buying power would be high-end OS collectors, most of whom are here on Legacy. So probably fewer players than you can count on two hands? Added to the small audience would be the problem of lack of recent precedent - items like that aren't exactly bought and sold frequently.

Now, let's assume that a player who isn't at all familiar with the market gets a drop like that. He posts on reddit asking for advice and is directed here. He puts up a PC request and is told the best thing to do is put it up for auction and see what happens - which isn't particularly helpful to a noob without also providing ballpark figures. So he puts it up for auction with a 7-day limit and receives a max bid for (say) 10a. For this poor schmuck, 10a is more than he's ever even seen, so he's happy. But what he doesn't know is that the two people who'd be most interested aren't around that week. So the following week the buyer flips it to one of them via a PM bid war for a massive profit.

Now, just because the seller happens to be satisfied with his 10a take, does that make this hypothetical situation kosher? Or would the seller have been better off with a PC that said "Personally I wouldn't sell for less than 60a, but it might take a while to find the right buyer"? If it were me, I'd prefer a ballpark figure even if it was a tad optimistic.

Just my 2 cents.

Pleikki This conversation is about PCs, with a special emphasis on your PCs. Please don't try to say that your own statements about how you PC are out of context. If you want to claim that you've changed your mind about how to PC, that's one thing but accusing me of taking your statements out of context is a cheap way of defending yourself in a situation where you weren't being attacked. Grow up.

You adamantly defended your position (even calling other ways of PCing "market manipulation) and now you're aligning yourself with and adamantly defending the exact opposite idea. This is just one reason why so much of what you say just doesn't ring true with people who have more experience with the game and with you. Of course it all sounds good to new/returning players but the rest of us know what we're listening to.

As for what a good PC really is, I think we're going over territory already covered in the other thread, including jimbo32 's point about there being different segments to any market and the idea that different prices may be possible with different levels of time investment. Here's something I said in the other thread. I meant it then and I mean it now. See how that works?

Quote from Captain Krompdown

[snip]

I think that information about actual sales of similar items (price, when the sale was made) is useful, but only for loose reference. I suppose that information about non-sales of similar items (e.g., "One of those has been for sale on legacy for XXXe for the last 2 weeks and nobody's taken it.") is also useful.

[snip]

If we are going to say that there is a market for an item, then there very well may also be segments to that market -- some potential customers who are only willing to pay a certain amount and other potential customers that may be willing to pay much more. Even the most benevolent PCer may only be familiar with one or another segment of the market.

That is why, IMO, the only useful info that can come from a PC thread is factual information about recent (non-)sales of similar items. But even that needs to be taken with a large grain of salt. That information is just as much about the seller's skill and determination as it is about the value of an item on the market.

I agree with a lot in your quote, Kromp. However, I would say that educated guesses based on personal experience and familiarity with the market can be very useful, especially when providing the PC to someone who has no idea regarding said market. Most of the regulars here know when they get a "Holy Shit!" drop, even if we may not know precisely what the market might support when selling. The same can't be said for every schmo in-game, and lots of people might really appreciate an educated guess. Is it the framing of the educated guesses that's the problem?

Anyway, I'm wondering what we're really talking about here. Are we talking about overly-optimistic PC's creating unreasonable expectations, or are we again talking about PC'ing with a personal agenda?

@jimbo32

Quote from jimbo32

That sounds good in theory, but with the current state of the game economy, it isn't always possible.

I say It is always better to be honest and say "I don't know what the market values it at" rather than guess and potentially mislead people.

In practice the scenario you gave almost never happens, the market knows more than any given individual. People seeking profit will always naturally bid up an item they consider "under priced" so they can buy as an investment. This stops items in a transparent public forum being traded for less than they are worth because the price they can reach in that system IS the value the market has given it. In a private setting this would be a much bigger problem which is why people should be told to be careful of private offers / just selling in kama.

Obviously legacy + kama doesn't reach all the potential buyers and therefore its possible (if not likely in some cases) the highest possible price wont be reached buts its as good a price discovery mechanism you going to get in guild wars (short of an auction house where all trade is conducted). The solution to this problem from a sellers perspective is marketing. Advertising to as many people as possible the item is for sale so more potential buyers can participate.

Quote from jimbo32

"Personally I wouldn't sell for less than 60a, but it might take a while to find the right buyer"?

I seriously don't understand that value such a statement has even when it comes from an assumed authority on the subject (which most times it doesn't). Given with no other details is simply conjecture.

Lets say you claim you wouldn't sell for less than 60a, you spend 6 months trying to sell and only get an offer for 30a. If the first statement is true then you haven't sold, so the price you allocated it was not valid. If you sell 6 months later for 60a you have not proved it was worth 60a at the time of the price check but rather 6 months later. These are not the same, any number of market dynamics could have changed in that time period. Prices in a free market are constantly changing. The only way to find the price in the present is to sell it. Hence this is the advise people should be given for items that are not continually traded + cautions about selling. Ultimately I believe the request for a price check has an implied condition of time. "What is my item worth at the moment" "what can I expect to get for it if I sold now". If people ask "I'm looking to sell next year, any guesses on price?" then such predictive statements are a reasonable response but absent of that its nonsense.

I'll refer to my previous statement with a slight alteration:

"Yes previous sales numbers and traders opinions can be a guide but ultimately cannot be relied upon as a measure of current value.

I agree with you, Pyro. You're preaching to the choir. My point was that the "60a" PC can be helpful, and isn't necessarily a bad thing. I guess I should have been more clear in stating that players shouldn't be married to the PC they get as if it's passed down from the divine. Personally, if I got a PC like that but after a period of time the highest bid I got was 40a, I would evaluate my time investment in the sale and would probably go with the high bid.

The issue is if someone thinks "jimbo on Legacy said I shouldn't sell for less than 60a, so pound sand with your lowball". That's what Max was talking about in the OP, and I think the fault lies just as much with the seller as it does with - possibly - a lack of clarity in the provided price check.

So yeah, nothing wrong with shooting for being as transparent as possible when doing PC's. That should be the goal. But, as has been pointed out by Pyro and Kromp, every PC should be taken with a grain of salt. If some seller treats a PC as the set-in-stone "price", it isn't necessarily 100% the fault of the PC'er.

There's another thing at work here as well. I've seen the odd comment on the GW reddit and in-game about some of the collectors on Legacy (paraphrasing) being low-ball rip-off artists who will steal the mods from your armour if you're not watching them carefully. I'm being slightly hyperbolic, but you get my point. So going back to the hypothetical 60a PC, if that person has heard this vile slander and then gets a bunch of PM's offering ~20a for his item, that would confirm what he's already heard and maybe make him dig in his heels. Even if the 20a offers are completely legit market-wise.

In that instance, it's partially the fault of (maybe) excessive expectations created by the PC and party due to OS collectors having the rep of sharks who will sell their firstborn for a beautiful pre-nerf.

It's a lucky day for me! You should all be so happy!

Today I decided I am maybe the greatest price checker around in the game today!

I made my views perfectly clear on the last price check thread and you are all lucky enough to be able to go read the things written by me there!

What a great time for you to look at this thread! Now that I have written in it, too!

It's the best time to play Guild Wars for me!

@jimbo32 I think we do agree for the most part

I would go way further than "every PC should be taken with a grain of salt". Been my position for a long time that PC thread is cancer and should be removed. The function of people commenting about price could be folded into sell thread somehow. A comments section underneath a thread is all it need be. That would serve the purpose of preventing "lowballs" which is all PC thread attempts (badly) to be in practice. Also solves the problem of people (including me) using posts on sell threads to banter / flame. With a comment section for all the cancer soup to swirl around in can be a strict enforcement that posts are bids only.

Quote from jimbo32

Are we talking about overly-optimistic PC's creating unreasonable expectations, or are we again talking about PC'ing with a personal agenda?

These aren't really separate issues. Extreme PCs (either high or low) can be given in service of personal interests. But like I said, that gets into trader ethics and is the deeper problem that Max may have been alluding to when he made his original comment.

Quote from jimbo32

Is it the framing of the educated guesses that's the problem?

Well it all comes down to this, doesn't it? The function of. PC is to provide the potential seller with a set of expectations. The least we can do is say what the basis is for the expectations we are providing. Recent sale? Failed thread on Legacy? Your general impression? Something you remember from a year ago? What you think a frantically motivated and infinitely rich collector might pay if he's in a giving mood?

Or should we just listen to you because you give a lot of price checks? Listening to someone because they talk a lot is a bad policy in every universe I've ever lived in

Quote from Captain Krompdown

...

Well it all comes down to this, doesn't it? The function of. PC is to provide the potential seller with a set of expectations. The least we can do is say what the basis is for the expectations we are providing. Recent sale? Failed thread on Legacy? Your general impression? Something you remember from a year ago? What you think a frantically motivated and infinitely rich collector might pay if he's in a giving mood?

Or should we just listen to you because you give a lot of price checks? Listening to someone because they talk a lot is a bad policy in every universe I've ever lived in

Right. And I think the whole thing stems from the small community. I was a "Price Check Guru" (kinda-mod) on GWG back in the day, and high-end OS PC's would usually attract a lot of comments. I'm sure a lot of you guys and girls here recall that there were a few people who routinely gave low-ball PC's that obviously had an agenda, but they were usually called out on their horseshit. Same with the preposterously high PC's. But that was when we might've had 10-20 or even more replies offering advice, as opposed to the current 1-3.

So maybe we should be discussing how to make the system better. I don't think the answer is to burn it down like Pyro suggested. That would exclude potential buyers of specific items, just as an example.

Its a good point and one I have considered in my "burn it down plan". Buyers looking for a price check would have nowhere specifically to go. My response would be to point them at previous sell threads (and newly added comments sections). Legacy search function isn't terrible either to accompany this. True they wouldn't be able to find info on anything that hasn't already been sold but that's a sacrifice i'd willing to make to stop the endless shenanigans of PC Thread and the resulting discussion threads about PC thread lol

Maybe make price checks be submitted through a fillable form. One blank for the price, one blank for support/evidence/documentation?

This system would be open to abuse like any other but it's simple and gives people an easier way to evaluate the quality of the information they're being given.

^ Excellent alternative to burning

That means a lot coming from you 😆

All the sale thread recycling makes self-help searching of the Sell section virtually impossible for even the most seasoned veterans, let alone a novice. I’ve always found the deleting of an OP annoying enough, and destructive to the data pool, but changing it 87 times is damned near infuriating and utterly devastating to what is left of the trade game. It makes me sad.

Also, price checking is as much an art as it is a science, your way may not be my way and my way is not the only way.

When it comes to pc's everyone has different ways of expressing themselves either from personal experiences or from what they have seen items sell for in the past. I dont feel like theres anything wrong with stating a minumal amount to accept for an item. To state the maximum amount thats a different story because nobody really knows how high any item can go for especially if theres alot of interest. There will always be those really low pc's and even the really high pc's, but this is why its good to get multiple pcs to get a better picture on what an item could be worth.

I'm childish and bored so I'll pick yet another useless fight.

Is there a rule that forbid one to pc everything ?

BESIDE Idk if you've heard the news but we are in the middle of a pandemic so you can't expect people to be constantly logged on your sanctuary.

Honestly I hope this is an act because this is far below highschool level of reasoning and for someone who claims to be mature that's ridiculous.

Once again I'm bored so I'd be more than happy to be entertained by clowns who are so full of themselves.(That last sentence wasn't aimed at anyone, draw your own conclusions, everyone in this forum is good for bending reality to make it fit their perspectives).

Cya in a bit, got an assignement to work on.

Quote from MaxBorken

No flaming please.

I did not mean to flame but if you check carefully the whole thread is all about passive agressive behaviors.

I honestly would not have any problem with any of you if you were not full of yourselves, thinking you're all mighty Gods because you've been playing an online game for more than a decade. At least thats how I understand your point of view, based on the posts I read here.

I mean stay true to who you are but hopefully you're more humble in real life. If not, then I'm glad we're not related to anything other than being from the same specie and perhaps the same sex.

is this the time for thread destruction cuz im willing to get another ban or are we gonna stop this BS and discuss like adults?

I'd like to throw a different perspective into this conversation, one that has been mentioned but not, as far as I can tell, heard: that of the returning, non-trader player. I played this game a lot from 2005 to 2009, but hadn't touched it in the best part of 11 years. I'm getting back into it the last couple of weeks (lockdown is boring), but I have no clue what the economy looks like (nor a number of other things, but that's off-topic here). I had to PC armbraces - that's how out of it I am. The fact a forum like the PC here exists helps. The fact that people bother to reply at all, regardless of whether their 'I wouldn't sell this for less than xx' are realistic or not, is a massive help.

I do not want to make this personal. I do notice that this has mostly turned into an intra-trader discussion, about whether or not scrubs like me should be a. lowballed, b. left completely in the dark or c. given unrealistic expectations. What I don't see is the traders posting here responding with the same zeal or passion to the numerous, numerous PC threads that have 0 or 1 response, not counting bumps. Correcting an inaccurate or exaggerated estimate directly in the thread, where the person holding the item actually is, is less of a priority than calling other traders out for inflating prices in a much more in-crowd conversation. I even see voices calling for closing the PC forum altogether - the traders already know what stuff is worth, and the scrubs will just have to commit to opening a sale thread to see what they can get.

To me, a returning player who genuinely needs help understanding how things are valued, any input is massively helpful. An experienced trader saying "you could get this" or "I wouldn't sell for less than this"? That's brilliant. Is that now how I value these items? Yes, absolutely. But you know what the key factor in that was? That nobody else said anything. If you disagree, add a second opinion. That's more information for me to base my decision on. I am convinced I will have a more realistic estimate based on ten people's input than one. But if all I'm left with is the one, who's overvaluing my items and making them harder to sell, I'll take it. Because it reinforces me as a returning player nonetheless. The level of gatekeeping I'm sensing behind literally not wanting people like me to even have this information is highly aggravating.

I never thought to consider what I read in the PC forums as unbiased scientific truth. They're opinions, and for the most part opinions of stakeholders, with all the biases that entails. But that is still so much better than nothing, and so much better than being left to "yeah, just go for it, put it up for sale, never mind your 11-year information gap on how the market behaved".

There was a reference to "the guy who thinks 10a is a lot" and goes for it "so he can finally get his first set of chaos gloves". I am that guy. I mostly played PvP back in the day, and never got very lucky with my Halls chest drops. I did some farming, but nothing dedicated. I have no stacks of ectos in the bank. I have one tormented weapon, the pride of my HoM. I bought my first set of Obby ever today, off the back of HA Weekend PvP sales that would've been impossible 11 years ago.

But I did hold on to some nice q8 items. And without someone pointing me to the PC forum here and getting even the most overblown estimate from the one person that did respond to one thread with a vaguely similar item at least gave me a vague ballpark figure. Before that, I wouldn't have known whether their value was expressed in armbraces, in ectos or even just in gold. So I'm going to thank that person for that, sincerely. And I respect him for it, so much more than the people who will take a look at the PC thread, who will PM their interest in my items, but who feel that me knowing what they could be worth is a privilege that isn't worth their time. But godforbid someone give me an estimate that's on the high side - that is unacceptable behaviour that needs to be called out immediately. Think it's a bad estimate? Fine, give me yours. And maybe, when I feel comfortable with the amount and the quality of the information I've received, I'll sell and you can add some more trophies to the cabinet.

Quote from Spun Ducky

Price check forum is a lot like several guys trying to pickup a girl in a bar. Sometimes no one will make a move as they are unsure or have some interest so they will try to strike up a conversation off to the side. In other times you have a loud mouth going in for the kill and people come in to cockblock for various reasons.

In reality the PC forum is used by some to protect players, although probably the rarest scenario. The other realistic main use people get out of it is sniping items below market or price checking super high to annoy fellow collectors.

Replaces guys by teenagers and you can compute a smooth interpolation function that will fit the playerbase model present on this website. The average error should be around 2^-1024 considering the error is a float.

@Yakslapper

First off great name!

I do however disagree with almost everything you said. A price check has no purpose for a seller other than to stop lowballs apart from if the result itself discourages people from posting for sale because its merch food. Getting a "ballpark" figure serves only to act as an guessed benchmark to retroactively mark against an eventual sell price.

Example 1: You get a PC of 10a for an item and then decide to post for sale. You wait 2 weeks and get a few bidders, the highest bid is 5a.

(The market has discovered the price for you of 5a. That's as much as a buyer is willing to pay. The opinion given by an individual/ group consensuses resulting in the PC of 10a was totally irrelevant other than stopping you from taking a hypothetical low private offer of say 10e. The same is true of the reverse.)

Example 2: You get a PC of 10a for an item and then decide to post for sale. You quickly get an offer for 10a and take it. A few days on you get another offer for 15a. (You have used the subjective value somebody with assumed authority gave and ended up will less than was possible.)

Example 3: You get a PC of 10a for an item and then decide to post for sale. You quickly get an offer for 10a, a few days on you get another offer for 15a and take it. (The market has again discovered a price for you of 15a. The PC did not effect the price you got and was again wrong by 50% because nobody knew the price it would sell for. What value was the PC? none.)

In each example which covers 99% of scenarios of PC and Sell interaction you didn't need the number 10a and the 1 time it affected the outcome it did so at a loss to you. This is the problem with all current price checking. You cannot know it was accurate until you sell and at that stage you have the price and the PC was irrelevant. To me information you cannot judge the validity of is worthless. IMO PC Thread has a function but its not to give a number that people should put any stock into whatsoever. It is merely to prevent "lowballs". The phrase "as much as somebody will offer, sell and find out" is a cliche but is 100% accurate and should be used for near everything. Any ballpark figure then only serves as some vague reference of scale to compare "lowball" private offers to.

I would purpose standard responses be:

"Yes the item has some value, auction in public view and find out how much"

"No the item is merch food"

A consensus around this binary option can easily be reached and people can quibble about the definition of "merch food"

This is the only honest way to "Price check" high end items if not all. It prevents lowballs and stops all the bullshit of PC thread.

PyroLobster I like your brutal, straightforward analysis. I think it makes a lot of sense. The price that the market bears is the item's price, regardless of what anyone says it should/could/would be. The bids that you get are the reality of the situation. The talk is just talk. From the perspective, the talk is basically pointless, especially if someone just wants to sell and item *now* because they need the money for some reason, and the PC forum should indeed be burned to the ground and forgotten about. If a seller wants to know the price of their item, they should simply put it up for sale, advertise it in as many channels as possible (legacy auction, Kamadan, whatever) and see what bids come in or what prices they can negotiate. They can take the offer they like best and rest assured that, by definition, they have received market value for their item. After all, it's only the market that can tell the market value of an item. Talking heads just talk.

I think your analysis really does apply best to people who have an item that they just want to sell right now. But not all sellers are motivated that way. For example, imagine a collector with a large store of presumably valuable items who has decided on a new direction for their collection. To start moving in that new direction, they decide to sell off some of their stash in order to stockpile some cash just so they can be ready if something they like suddenly appears. This collector is flipping through their storage, thinking about what might be good to sell. From your perspective, there's really no way to know other than to sell the items. That's undeniably true in some sense. There is no price for the item until a sale is agreed upon. But we also know that certain items have value apart from their specific price at any moment. Req 8 sephis axes are worth more than feathers. We don't need to sell the sephis and the feather to figure that out. We can know these things in general and that kind of knowledge can help guide us toward an expectation about an acceptable sale price.

The sephis-feather example is hyperbolic but I hope it helps convey a point: The value of items isn't simply unknown or unknowable until the moment they are sold. Another way of seeing this in action would be if the hypothetical collector pulls a particular skin out of storage that isn't especially popular right now. Maybe it's not the right time to sell that particular item. Things go in and out of fashion. Specific skins might be hot shit for a certain amount of time (sometimes a very long time, sometimes not so much) and then become cliche...and then become popular again. There are plenty of examples, especially (I think) with shields, for whatever reason. Even though it's 100% true that we can only know the price of an item when we sell it, it's possible for someone to (accurately) say that a particular item is out of fashion now and that it may be smarter to hold onto that item (and maybe sell something else more popular) right now. This is another way that knowledge can creep into the process of determining what kind of price you might want to get for an item, apart from what the market will bear at the moment.

So, while I agree with you that:

• selling an item is the only way to learn its price, and...
• market conditions are changing constantly, so previous sales can't be taken as a straightforward indication of current price

...I think that there has to be some place for knowledge in the process of evaluating the prices of potential sales. How do I know not to sell my Req 8 Sephis Axe for 15k even if that's the best bid/offer I get? I know because items aren't really completely independent of each other in terms of value. Sales aren't really completely independent events. There is a system. Whether it's rarity, aesthetics, or whatever, items are valued in relation to each other. Nothing makes that fact clearer than when those value relationships are violated, when they change, or when groups of people don't agree on those what those relationships are like in the first place. In the guild, we've had people wonder aloud how an item of Type X can really sell for more than an item of Type Y. A pair of sales can be surprising in relation to each other (and becomes a topic of conversation) because we have implicit ideas about the relative value of kinds of items, independent of the specific prices that the market might bear at any given time.

I know I've gone on for a while here and I've gone in a couple of different directions. Sorry about that. I just wanted to post to keep the ball rolling on the constructive conversation that's been intermittently happening in this thread. I hope at least something is clear. I agree with your point about the emptiness of talk compared to the reality of the market. I think PyroLobster has done a nice job of pushing us to at least consider some pretty substantial changes to how we do things. But I also think there's more to it than just that. And, maybe unfortunately, the fact that knowledge, experience, and perspective have something to contribute to our price expectations means that asking people who may possess some of that knowledge for advice on prices is likely to remain a valid activity for the foreseeable future.

What we need to be careful of is people taking advantage of any reputation they may have for being knowledgeable or experienced. It is naive to ignore the power that comes with that kind of reputation. And it's naive to think that those who actively try to wield that reputation do so out of altruism. But it's too much to ask new/returning players to be critical of who they receive price checks from. They're just happy to get some help when they feel like they need it. It's really up to the rest of us to do better if we want to see better done.

There is so much hypocrisy there i must step in for one more thing.

Basically pyro you exacly stated the 99% yes, but you left out the 1% youre also in, if we would call it "the rich 1%, the people who know better and dont sell items if the bids dont reach their minimum expected price as we discuss here.

Like you said on ur sale thread:

You're here being part of the problem instead of solution, maybe you could start acting urself 1st before denying the right, luxury basically privilege you have for being older, more exprienced collector of being able set up minimal price, this whole thread is about denying this same right from majority of players who dont know better, and causing even larger gap between rich and poor, exprienced and unexprienced.

We all know majority of collectors will never start selling items auction type, so ripping of price check doesnt work. IF we had like 3rd party auction system that was only way to sell items for what ever offers it was, sure we could get rid of price checks too.

But until there are persons like you and me, of setting minimal prices for things, why cant we allow the same right of knowing minimal price to everyone by telling them that in price check section?

Captain Krompdown

Quote from Captain Krompdown

But not all sellers are motivated that way. For example, imagine a collector with a large store of presumably valuable items who has decided on a new direction for their collection. To start moving in that new direction, they decide to sell off some of their stash in order to stockpile some cash just so they can be ready if something they like suddenly appears.

In this example the individual has some knowledge of what his items are worth. He either paid for them or exchanged them for another item he bought. He is working with the assumption his items are at least above the threshold of "merch vaule". It's implied that this knowledge is limited hence the desire for a "price check" or at a minimum wants clarification. So he post several items for review and presumably gets responses about them. What addition information were these "price checkers" using to create the response they gave?

Did they know:

- How many potentially buyers would be interested at the present time

- How much cash these people had to commit to a purchase

- How motivated they were in buying (Level of interest of potential buyers have).

These are arguably the 3 most important factors that will decide the sell price and I would summit that almost every "price checker" has very little if any of that information. They cant know every possible bidder and there intentions or how future events will affect there actions. As such they can't weigh those variables to predict the outcome correctly (obvious exceptions for fortune tellers). This leaves us with the question. What information do they have to make a prediction? The list of things they might know is like the list they don't, long. But here some that are commonly given as justification of purposed prices.

- Previous sell prices

- Previous sell prices of similar items

- Previous sell prices of items with a similar rarity

(or a combination these)

All of these are for lack of a better term out of date. They are the result of a different time with different variables that are likely not fully understood even with hindsight. With just the 3 variables I listed formerly everybody can see how past sales info cannot accurately predict future prices (especially with using so few data points in the case of high end items). This is born out in practice, I am reminded of the blue q8 magmas as an example. They 2nd one that came for sale only got half the price of the first. An extreme example but anybody who has spend time trading know this phenomenon to be true. Past sale are a guide or "ballpark" but ultimately cant be relied upon to reflect future transactions and can be wildly wrong.

All of this and much more is why the only true way to know the price is to sell, I think we agree on this. I am also in agreeance with you that peoples predictive prices can have some measure of accuracy. This is pretty obvious because most price checks aren't insanely wrong. This is a function of them having some information with which to work with even if its incomplete compared to market forces. I think where we are differing is what value this somewhat accurate predictive ability is and how/if it should be used.

I went into some detail in the previous post of how irreverent a price check is if you intended to sell regardless of the opinions. In your example a person wants to sell 1 of a number which is different but in my eyes warrants the same response. If the accuracy of the price check cannot be known until the sale then the guy looking for which item to sell based on that price check is essentially making a decision upon flawed data. To me listing all his selected items for sale and then deciding, (once the numbers are in) what to let go is of benefit to him. This course of action absolutely goes on successfully. Sellers list dozens of items for sale with no intention of selling all but to gauge interest and find real price information. I submit this is to be encouraged instead of using PC Thread.

Yes we don't need a sale to know a feather will fetch less than a Q8 sephis. Likewise we don't need a sale to know that a Q9 Voltaic Spear will currently get bids of 4a+. If inexperienced players need to be informed of current prices of these types of frequently traded items then fine, PC thread can accommodate that if other methods cant. The kind of price checks that started this discussion are high end ones. Items that are not frequency traded and therefore little information can be know about the variables that will effect its sell price. In this scenario I believe personal opinions amount to nothing more than a guess, something that's not helpful information in my mind. I would prefer somebody say "I just don't know" rather than give me an answer engaging in conjecture. If the trading community wants to keep the guessing game going then so be it. What I am suggesting is a viable alternative to that system which improves accuracy and reduces confusion, frustration and in some cases dishonesty.

As previously outlined I believe there is room for "ballpark" figures to accompany the default advise of not selling via pm & list publicly for sale. But only really as context to know what a "lowball" looks like or perhaps if its not worth the effort to sell. Information on previous sales ect can be provided for the purpose or validating the "ballpark" figure given but not much more. I will add to my previous suggestion and summit below my ideal solution (apart from scrapping the whole thing lol). Price checkers have 3 choices (essentially votes) with the option of giving additional info to include: "ballpark" price ideally accompanied with past sales info and alike to substantiate it.

-----------------------------------------------------------

"Item has some value, auction and find out how much"

(Auction meaning a sell thread supplemented by taking bids from kama ect)

We Advise you to:

Not sell to private messages

Allow adequate time for you're auction to take place (At least a week recommended)

Not expect any price given here to be the price you sell for

"Item has value, is regularly sold for.."

(Option for adding a current commonly accepted price)

"Item is merch food"

(Regarded as less than 10k)

-----------------------------------------------------------

I believe this simple and transparent voting mechanic would result in more people participating in price checks and give better results for users. It prevents "lowball" offers taking place and adds some uniformity to price checking instead of the free for all we currently have. Ultimately it pushes more rare items to be put for sale where the true price can be found which should be the goal. Apologies for the essay and all the typos.

Pleikki

the post on PyroLobster you used to target him and attempt to make your point is invalid and ultimately useless.

1. I sabotaged that thread for my own selfish purposes.
2. pm's to bid to Pyro and myself also valued that item at a much higher price than was shown to the public so clearly it was the wrong time to sell.
3. the interest was much greater than what was shown in the thread.

@Pleikki

Quote from Pleikki

Basically pyro you exacly stated the 99% yes, but you left out the 1% youre also in, if we would call it "the rich 1%, the people who know better and dont sell items if the bids dont reach their minimum expected price as we discuss here.

That's in a sell thread and my own item. We are discussing others opinions on expected future prices. Me not wanting to sell at the price the market gave me has no relevance to the validity of somebody else opinion on that item b4 the price was determined. Weather or not the person wants to sell the item once the price has been discovered is an entirely different question.

Quote from Pleikki

luxury basically privilege you have for being older, more exprienced collector of being able set up minimal price

^ THIS RIGHT HERE is exactly the problem. YOU not I want to set minimal prices via PC thread. I want people to 1. not get lowballed and 2. not be deceived into thinking that have something more valuable than they do and let buyers decide prices. You want people to not sell unless it reaches a value YOU assign to it. I didn't want to sell the enambled for the price offered because the personal value I place on it is greater than what I was offered. That is quiet a different thing to you putting minimum prices on other peoples items. Let the market tell them what the price is then allow them to make the decision to sell or not, uninfluenced by you nonsensical opinions. This is exactly what i did and exactly what I'm suggest everybody else do. 100% consistent.

Quote from Pleikki

why cant we allow the same right of knowing minimal price to everyone by telling them that in price check section?

People have a right to know YOUR subjective hypothetical "minimum price" do they? what complete and utter drivel. If you had understood anything I've written in this thread you would know YOU don't know the price of something that hasn't been sold yet and trying to convince people otherwise is dishonest (Especially when its done for you own insidious agenda). This is the reason I've stopped price checking things and am constructively suggesting an alternative method. You want to continue the same system so you can influence prices. Support ones of similar items you own with "minimum prices" and lower ones you wish to buy made up numbers or no response at all. I want to do neither and am asking for more public transparent auctions to determine prices rather than let people like you manipulate things for ur own gain.

Thanks for showing ur true colors yet again.

I'm so tired of all this bitching. What is there to argue about? People give their own opinion and the person asking decide themselves what to believe/make out of the information they received, end of story.

The responsibilty of the outcome lies entirely on the person asking in the end, that will never change, ever. And yes, some people will try to give themselves a favorable outcome if they can, is this really news to anyone? It happens everyday in real life and it has been happening since the start of GW/Guru. Dunno why people start bitching about it now to be honest. Only difference is before people used to brag about the good deals (rip-offs if you wanna call it that) they made openly in this thread, and got applauded for it. This is not teletubbyland where everyone is holding hands singing kumbaya, nor has it ever been.

I respect all the people involved and consider many my friends, but this need to stop now. If you have personal vendettas or whatever just take that shit to private messages.

If you want to price check, just give your own opinion if you have one and then leave, that's all there is to it. The more the better, since that gives the person asking a wider perspective when they decide what to do.

And of course the opinions you might receive does not always reflect current market. Then freaking sticky a message stating "This price check may or may not reflect the current market, so keep in mind that the suggested prices may or may not be reached if you do decide to sell/buy the item." to every single post in the Price check forum no matter what. That way it's always shoved up each and every persons face everytime someone post anything in there, making it impossible to miss even for the oblivious.