The impact of minimum expected values in a price check

I'll try and keep it short

Quote from Coffee Man

People give their own opinion and the person asking decide themselves what to believe/make out of the information they received, end of story.

Sounds good but the people requesting advice are ignorant of the price or they wouldn't be asking. The people that are responding are presumed somewhat of an authority (they at least no more than the requester) so there is the implied trust that the information given is somewhat accurate. I'm saying that the information is nowhere near accurate enough to honestly put forward. You're asking people to decide if they should believe an answer to a question they asked. I hope you can see how that's a problem.

"This price check may or may not reflect the current market, so keep in mind that the suggested prices may or may not be reached if you do decide to sell/buy the item."

If you have to apply that warning like that then you are conceding the numbers given are basically worthless (which they are). So why bother having them at all?

I'll keep personal things aside. I do agree with some suggestions above such as the binary response.

But let's be honest, there isn't one person in this World that isn't biased.

All things considered and after reading things here.

For those who advocate against PC, why don't you simply just ask for the PC section to be removed. Therefore the items would simply pop up in the selling section and there would not be any expectation.

But we all know that even when an item reaches the selling section, wether there's one or more person interrested, stakeholders can simply messsage one another and discuss about who should get the item without starting a bidwar. That's possible because the GW playerbase is tiny these days.

The price check section is just here to give a broad estimate on what one should expect, at least that's how I see it being used since GWGuru.

The point is back when GW Guru was still alive and well that is before 2014? There were still much more active players who were giving their opinions, am I right ?

As far as I'm concerned you are all free to contribute to that same section if you find that the PC's are inacurate.

Now I can understand that you don't feel like doing that for the multiple threads that pop daily, but if you're not keen on putting some time in argumenting what an item is worth, then you shouldn't complain about it.

A pointless debate in the end, especially since most of the people who posted here are part of the "me collect things" players who would definitely snatch any cheap deal they come accross to expand their collection in one way or another.

I do like Coffee Man 's idea of tagging every pc automatically. This is what's done for all kinds of investments in real life where people are also tempted to treat past performance as an indication of future value.

I don't like the confusion, arrogance, and total lack of self-awareness in Pleikki 's post. There's a huge gap between suggesting an expectation for a potential seller to have and actually setting a minimum price for an item. You seem to have a vision of yourself (and maybe others, I don't know) as holding the markets in the palm of your hand. This is exactly the problem.

I think PyroLobster 's main point is that given the choice between letting the market speak for itself and letting megalomaniacs continue to attempt to control the markets, we would all be better off turning the volume down on the megalomaniacs. I think a better option should be possible (or maybe this is just a wish) because there clearly is some knowledge available beyond the prices produced by an auction. There should be a 3rd option that would allow that knowledge to be used productively. But, like you said, PyroLobster and Coffee Man , the issue may be in how that knowledge is used.

PyroLobster and Coffee Man are right that there has aleays been abuse of the PC system. jimbo32 , you (as a former PC guru on Guru) have expressed the same idea privately and have even linked some of that corruption to one of the prominent names in this thread (and I agree 100%). It's the worst-kept secret in trading that the PC forum is a cesspool. It seems that, for as long as there's been a PC forum, those who are most active in it are the ones who should be trusted the least.

Assuming the PC forum isn't going to be shut down, I really think that it's up to the rest of us to do better. I know that seems simplistic, given the thought that's been put into some of the posts on the thread but maybe a multiplicity of opinions will have the same effect as forbidding PCs altogether. Both will encourage people to put their items up for sale and see if they get a price they find acceptable. The danger zone is if we allow the PC forum to be dominated by a small number of voices. jimbo32 mentioned the idea that the current situation is a function of the small community size (and presumably even smaller pool of active PCers). This is also where I agree with Coffee Man most. An active, informed community is the best antidote to the problems that come with having only a small number of active PCers. In think this is the same idea behind a certain, struggling political system that is, so far, the best we have. Without that, maybe PyroLobster should get his wish.

It's really up to us to do better.

Quote from PyroLobster

You're asking people to decide if they should believe an answer to a question they asked. I hope you can see how that's a problem.

Yes I'm asking people to deal with the information they receive as they should do with any information they receive in real life, no matter their ignorance of this particular topic.

Here's an example: If you walk up to five jewelry traders and ask them what your grandmas old diamond earrings that you inherited is worth and they all respond 5$, would you straight up believe them? Or would you go to other jewelry traders and ask the same question, maybe google some, check other similar items worth etc.?

Another example could be: Your grocery store suddenly tells you that $5 bills are only worth 1$ now in their store, do you believe them and act accordingly without questioning? Or do you go to the store manager, check with the public etc. to verify if this truly is the case?

In the end it all comes down to how much the person asking is willing to do in order to verify the claims of the people responding. If you really want you could do quite a bit to really get an accurate price yourself, but that all depends on how much time and effort you're willing to spend.

If they don't want to invest any time or effort, then they can choose to blindly trust each and every word. If they want to get to the bottom of their question and get an as accurate price as possible, they can scroll through all the previous sale threads in here, approach other players themselves ingame or via PM and ask etc.

I will assume that every person here atleast can make that decision themselves. If they end up being ripped off then good, that's a life lesson for them and they will most likely not do that again, so they learned something new and came out richer in experience. That's how life works.

I mean let's be honest and I'm sure you agree, it's common sense and we could atleast expect that much from each other.

That's why I say in the end the responsibility of the outcome lies entirely on the person asking. Nobody is holding them hostage using gunpoint, they make their own decisions.

Fundamentally, what I don't like, is people that don't need the PC forum saying there shouldn't be a PC forum.

I could go into detail on how I disagree with PyroLobster that the only time value is ever determined is at point of sale. I could argue that even in his straightforward view that markets are the only "true" deciders of price, there is a market for assessors in a lot of industries, some of which are reasonably analogous to the Guild Wars high end market. If there is, as Pyrolobster hyperbolically claims, no way to gauge value until a sale, that all estimates until then are literally air in the wind, why do auction houses employ people to assess the value of items? Why do mortgage banks? Are they all completely irrational actors? Are they literally throwing their money away when they pay those people? I mean, yeah, I get that people like the straightforward view, but straightforward all-or-nothing interpretations rarely fully capture nuanced realities. Thinking beyond the PC forum here, the statement that "no price assessments before actual sale have any value" is almost ludicrous.

But that's an ideological discussion on how markets work, and I don't think it necessarily belongs here. And it's not the part that I personally find so hard to stomach. I consider it an unsophisticated view, almost irrational even, but I can handle people holding irrational views.

What does bother me personally, is that in the sweeping statements and the generalizations about the value of price checks, the PC forum itself has to go. It's not enough that some people think the assessments have no value, they feel the information shouldn't even be out there. And that's the part I don't get. To me, they have value. To the dozens of other people using the PC forum, I'm guessing they do too. Why does you thinking they don't mean they have to go? What's so threatening about people like me getting information that you consider to be worthless anyway?

I've seen a lot of aspersions cast about the intentions of people that give PCs. I've even seen them called a "nefarious agenda". What is that nefarious agenda, pray? If I get told my item is worth more than it is, cui bono? Cui plagalis? Who benefits? Who is penalized? I would argue that the inexperienced, uninformed, poorer player like me benefits, because he'll try to get more for his item. I'd argue that the wealthy trader/buyer is penalized, because he may have to overpay if he really wants the item. Fundamentally, to me, this discussion boils down to that. Either side can point to the other as having a nefarious agenda, because they are trying to favor one "against" the other. The traders/buyers want sellers to be completely in the dark. The PCers want sellers to increase costs for the buyers. Fine. The battle lines are drawn.

I know which side I'm on.

Coffee Man

I do agree. Well said. Perhaps my views on where responsibility of ensuring accuracy falls in this dynamic were to focused on the guy providing the PC.

An attitude of "fact check the fact checker" is certainly advisable if you are going to utilize Price Check opinions.

Would still rather let a sell thread tell me a price. That is reality, no fact checking required.

Appreciate the constructive debate

@Yakslapper

Quote from Yakslapper

I could go into detail on how I disagree with PyroLobster that the only time value is ever determined is at point of sale. I could argue that even in his straightforward view that markets are the only "true" deciders of price, there is a market for assessors in a lot of industries, some of which are reasonably analogous to the Guild Wars high end market. If there is, as Pyrolobster hyperbolically claims, no way to gauge value until a sale, that all estimates until then are literally air in the wind, why do auction houses employ people to assess the value of items? Why do mortgage banks? Are they all completely irrational actors? Are they literally throwing their money away when they pay those people? I mean, yeah, I get that people like the straightforward view, but straightforward all-or-nothing interpretations rarely fully capture nuanced realities. Thinking beyond the PC forum here, the statement that "no price assessments before actual sale have any value" is almost ludicrous.

I'll clarify previous statements about pricing. The true price (a representation of value) of any given item is absolutely only determined at the point of sale. That price is not open to interpretation or opinion it is totally static. That item sold for x, its price was x.

An assessor is not unlike people price checking things on legacy but with an important difference. An assessor is specialized to a certain asset class and regularly sees that assets being bought and sold and thus has a very good understand of current market conditions. That persons opinion on pricing is of course valid and there estimate is useful information to both parties and should be relatively accurate. This is the situation with commonly traded Guild Wars Items (The q9 vs I gave in my examples). Any estimate by the assessor will be correct to within some margin of error (if hes gd at his job), this margin will only be discovered when the item is sold.

Contrast this with a rare unique item that hasn't been traded for say 1 year. There is no knowledge of current market conditions is relation to this item because for all intensive purposes the market does not exist. With zero or very little information to base an estimate on, what value can that estimate have other than zero or very little. This is what I am talking about when I say "no price assessments before actual sale have any value".

If you wana have a further ideological discussion on how markets work lets take it to the PM's

In relation to my comments about removing PC thread entirely as an option. That comes from my sincere belief that all things considered in its current form, PC thread does more harm than good.

I'll leave the nefarious agenda stuff with what I've said previously and just add this:

If there is to be a PC thread I would want it to be more honest, transparent and accurate. That is the motivation for all suggestions.

Quote from PyroLobster

@Yakslapper

I'll clarify previous statements about pricing. The true price (a representation of value) of any given item is absolutely only determined at the point of sale. That price is not open to interpretation or opinion it is totally static. That item sold for x, its price was x.

An assessor is not unlike people price checking things on legacy but with an important difference. An assessor is specialized to a certain asset class and regularly sees that assets being bought and sold and thus has a very good understand of current market conditions. That persons opinion on pricing is of course valid and there estimate is useful information to both parties and should be relatively accurate. This is the situation with commonly traded Guild Wars Items (The q9 vs I gave in my examples). Any estimate by the assessor will be correct to within some margin of error (if hes gd at his job), this margin will only be discovered when the item is sold.

Contrast this with a rare unique item that hasn't been traded for say 1 year. There is no knowledge of current market conditions is relation to this item because for all intensive purposes the market does not exist. With zero or very little information to base an estimate on, what value can that estimate have other than zero or very little. This is what I am talking about when I say "no price assessments before actual sale have any value".

If you wana have a further ideological discussion on how markets work lets take it to the PM's

In relation to my comments about removing PC thread entirely as an option. That comes from my sincere belief that all things considered in its current form, PC thread does more harm than good.

I'll leave the nefarious agenda stuff with what I've said previously and just add this:

If there is to be a PC thread I would want it to be more honest, transparent and accurate. That is the motivation for all suggestions.

Display More

I like this. Thanks for qualifying some of your more hyperbolic statements, it gives me a better understanding of where you're coming from and I think we can find some common ground now.

I can live with most of what you said, there's just two things I'd like to add:

The first is that while I understand the exception you're trying to great for rare/rarely sold items, I still think there's a middle ground between "estimates that are plucked from thin air and wildly inaccurate" and "you'll just have to put it up for sale and see what the market says". I'll continue the real world high end art analogy, as I think it's the clearest parallel. I get what you say about PC being harder because there isn't an item like it sold every week, month or even year. But I still don't think no PC at all is the only alternative.

There isn't a Van Gogh sold every year or even every decade. That doesn't mean that Christie's or Sotheby's are just going to wing it when a seller contacts them saying they want to auction one. There is still an estimate to be made, however indicative. It could end up being off by a hundred million - that's a non-trivial margin of error. But I would still argue it's better than leaving the seller completely in the dark as to whether it's worth $5 or $350 mill. They'll look at past sales of Van Gogh's, however long ago they were. They'll adapt those for inflation and other changes in the market they're aware of. They'll judge where the painting fits within Van Gogh's body of work - whether it's at the top end or the lower end of his artistic output.

OS items aren't that different. The supply is finite - the artist is dead, the drop possibility has been removed. However rarely, similar items have been sold before. The same skin could be analogous to the artist. A Van Gogh is more desirable than a Seurat (sticking to post-impressionists) the way a chaos axe is more desirable than a cleaver. The market has changed since the last sales - more players have left, so there's less potential demand, but farming has continued and the amount of cash held by high-end traders has increased. The mods and the requirement tell you whether it's at the top end for that skin or whether you should expect less. A q7 15^50 is Sunflowers, a q8 12% enchanted is a pencil sketch. There is an estimate to be made, if you have the right factors to weigh.

That brings me to the second point. Maybe being in the trader bubble for so long has led to an underestimation of the information you have and others like me don't. I can't imagine that you look at a q8 perfect mod item in your storage and go "yeah, I have no idea what that's worth". You're not going to value it below a certain threshold, because you have information about the market analogous to the factors listed above. I don't have that information, but the PC forum gives me access to it, however flawed it may be. You wouldn't sell a Kuunavang for 100K like I did because you know more than I do. You might not have been able to price it to the last ecto, but you'd have been able to tell me the trade shouldn't have been in platinum. That information is useful. I can't stress this enough - for someone in my position, it is infinitely better than nothing. So give estimates, to the best of your ability and with all the qualifications about the accuracy of the information you like. Or don't. But at least leave space for those who want to do so, and for those who want to receive it.

That, I think, would be my main plea.

I have refrained from posting on this thread until now, mainly cause it has been ridiculously off topic of the actual issue. The issue on hand is that the PC process has holes in it, this is no surprise, but the discussion is more singling out one or more people regarding their thoughts. I honestly didn't read the entire thing cause it's not worth it, but the more effective direction should be a solution. If you are not willing to get towards a solution, you can skip the rest of "my thoughts".

Regarding valuing an item, there is no exact science, especially the very rare items, but prices should be based on what similar items have sold for not just what one person would like to get. Stores don't just price items based on what they want to get, they have to price them so people buy them, otherwise they will go out of business. When you see an item in a store and say "that's expensive", that's only cause you have seen/purchased a similar item with a lower price to compare to.

I am much more of a collector than a trader, but just like other players, in order to make the funds for my collection, I have to sell things too. I have done the same process personally over the years that has worked at least for me. Rather than always using the Kamadan Sites or searching here on Legacy for prices that other players are using for a price, I actually track every sale I make. This allows me to have a reference of prices that things have actually sold for. Yes, I have to start with a price at times (maybe a similar item I have sold, Kamadan site as a guide but not source of truth), but negotiating is also part of making a deal, cause again, in order for an item to be sold, the price has to satisfy both the buyer and the seller. I do take things in mind when referencing my own sold list, one is timing, I wouldn't use a price from a year or 2 ago, as things do inflate in value, as well as deflate in value (Some tonics and mini's are good examples of this), but then again, it could be a guide for me. I also track things that I have had to merch cause of no interest.

With this in mind, here is my pc replacement concept which is the "idea in the sky". If there was a database type of tool that could house data around actual sales, not opinions, this would be much more reality than guessing. This still has it's potentially for issues, I get that, but if there was registers users that were approved to enter their sales (maybe based on ratings on the sites earn you that privilege) , it could be searchable by items or alike attributes to assist others with pricing their own items. It would take alot of data, but with the amount of potential sales that are made, with the right people, this data could be valuable to use in no time. Personally, I would suggest this was only numbers based, not words and sentences, again, sticking only to the point. Something that comes to mind as an example is the old GW auction site (http://www.gwauctions.org/pricerecords/). This was for actually selling things, but the general concept can be adapted to be used for gathering sold prices.

So again, trying to steer this towards solutions, this is only my thoughts (please don't bash them cause they are not your thoughts, be open minded), others have lots great ideas as well. I would like to hope that if the right ideas are put out there, the powers and minds with these abilities would seek the solution and not continue to complain about the problem.

Chevy

Pleikki has changed the format of his PC posts to this:

Quote

Highest i have seen this or similar item go for in the right circumstances: 30-40a

What i think is fair on today's market: 10-20a

I think selling below this would be getting ripped of spectacularly considering my experience of market on such items: 5a

Does anyone take issue with this sort of reply? Seems reasonable to me. If you disagree with the PC assessment, you can always post, right?

jimbo32

Pretty clear that me and Pleikki disagree on most things but I think this is an improvement. If estimates are going to be given in this way personally id still like to see at least a caveat message underneath:

These are just my opinions. Ultimately they only way to find out what offers you will get is to ask for them. Utilize a sell thread.

Should be standard advice given in all price checks really

Also "PM me for more information."? Questions should be asked and answered on the thread imo. Public and transparent.

@Agent Chevy

I love ur response.

Quote from Agent Chevy

Stores don't just price items based on what they want to get, they have to price them so people buy them

^ Think me and you pretty closely agree how price systems work. The store effectively predicts what a customer is willing to pay then adjusts (if required) after it has sales data because it isn't using an auction style mechanism. In practice this prediction is made long b4 the product is created and the result is the justification for the viability of that business to create that good or service. This is the basic demonstration of how ultimately consumers drive prices in a free market even when the seller is setting the price.

Your suggestion of actively keeping price records is fantastic. (I do this myself as you do). It would provide a resource on which future predictions could be more accurately derived from. Like the hypothetical assessor me and yakslapper where discussing, the more information you have on the market the more accurate your estimates should be and thus the more useful it is to somebody seeking advise. Open to abuse like all things but giving everybody access to more data = GREAT IDEA!

Yakslapper

In reference to your 1st point:

Quote from Yakslapper

There isn't a Van Gogh sold every year or even every decade. That doesn't mean that Christie's or Sotheby's are just going to wing it when a seller contacts them saying they want to auction one.

My argument is that there is no equivalent "Christie's or Sotheby's" type authority in the game. Perhaps as Chevy suggested with the resource of more valid sales records people would get closer to that level of expertise but I'm dubious that would have a substantial effect (owing to the fact past sales cant predict future results). The amount and scale of unknown variables is simply to high imo.

Quote from Yakslapper

It could end up being off by a hundred million - that's a non-trivial margin of error. But I would still argue it's better than leaving the seller completely in the dark as to whether it's worth $5 or $350 mill.

I would claim that level of thought and research isn't reflected in PC thread opinions leading to a prediction that is based on so little its worth is likewise.

My idea of switching the process of attaining a price check is not to leave the user in the dark but to face this fact honestly and say:

Sorry, we cant say with a good enough degree of accuracy what price you will get. Sadly to find this information you will have to wait and see.

Once the sale has proceed there is a better opportunity for price opinions because there is a comparison to be made that isn't solely based on speculation. Advising the seller in such a way:

Looks like this may not be a good time sell this item. Comparing with past results the interest is low, maybe consider selling another time might be advisable if you want it to reach its full potential.

Or the reverse of:

This item currently has more demand that normal. This is a comparatively good price based on past results. I recommend selling now.

To me this is a better way of utilizing price opinions.

In reference to your 2nd point:

Quote from Yakslapper

I don't have that information, but the PC forum gives me access to it, however flawed it may be

My opinion is if the information is as flawed as I believe it to be then its better to not have it. It only serves to encourage people to make flawed decisions. This is even more of a problem when people don't admit how much of a guess there PC really is and or don't give details on how they have arrived at that number. Perhaps accompanying a measure of certainty along with numbers would help in this regard (I'm 80% sure item x will get offers above 50a). That would at least give users some measure of clarity to how reliable the PC might me. Also serves to keep track of how good peoples estimates are over time. Who is an authority on the subject and who isn't.

In the end the degree to which the data is flawed and at what level data becomes so flawed it shouldn't be used I think is what we are arguing over. A subjective matter that is probs best left with a friendly "lets agree to disagree". You think it has value and I do not. Everything else I think we agree on

PS. All of the above relates to the price checking of rarely traded items.

Jeez, this is exhausting.

C'mon now, Pyro. You seem to be suggesting that nobody has any real idea what things may be worth. That's disingenuous at best. Are you trying to say that when a lot of the experienced collectors on Legacy get a nice drop, they don't instantly have a ballpark figure as to what it may sell for? Because frankly, that's horseshit. And not a small amount. A giant, steaming, smelly pile that you'd need a backhoe to manage.

While I agree that it would be nice to have records of sales, that sort of thing may not be any more accurate as far as predicting future value than some people's educated guesses. Not to mention the tendency with a lot of people preferring to negotiate via PM so that the public isn't privy to the final trade.

Obviously you (and some others) prefer not to use the PC forum. That's fine, don't. In my opinion, the PC forum as a service isn't here for most of the regulars. Most of the serious collectors are dialed-in to the market, know who collects what, and know who will be willing to pay the most depending on the item. As I said, the PC forum isn't for those people. It's for the returning players who haven't logged in since 2012, or new people who want to fill their Hall of Monuments for the GW2 bonus stuff, or even SC players who happened to get a nice drop in Tyria or Cantha but aren't familiar with OS gear.

It sounds like you're looking for something that would suit your personal needs better than the current PC forum. That's fine, I'm with you 100%. But maybe we can manage both?

jimbo32

Quote from jimbo32

C'mon now, Pyro. You seem to be suggesting that nobody has any real idea what things may be worth. That's disingenuous at best. Are you trying to say that when a lot of the experienced collectors on Legacy get a nice drop, they don't instantly have a ballpark figure as to what it may sell for? Because frankly, that's horseshit. And not a small amount. A giant, steaming, smelly pile that you'd need a backhoe to manage.

Yes that exactly what I'm saying so lets put it to the test. From now on whenever such an item comes up for PC and publicly sells that's not been publicly sold for at least 6-12 months, let make a note of it.

I predict that the average projected price will be wrong by at least 50%. (That is to say an item with an average PC of 100a will sell for 50a/less or 150a/more.)

If you cannot predict a price to within a 50% margin of error its a pointless exercise. To use a previous analogy if a property assessor can't predict ur house value to with a 50% margin of error you would not use his services. Making the service more accurate / not using (FOR SOME ITEMS) the current inaccurate one is exactly my suggestion.

MaxBorken

^ This guy gets it. 100% agree on everything.

With inflation and the ridiculous amount of currency floating around and most items having a steady supply or no supply price checks should obviously be taken with a grain of salt. Currencies are always adjusting. 50A today is not 50A tomorrow. Likewise perceived value of an item will fluctuate depending on demand, supply... I personally am okay with people telling me their opinion on a min or max because that min or max does not apply to a desperate buyer

PyroLobster and MaxBorken , I love you both and am proud to share a cape with both of you but I think this conversation has gone too far in the "sell it and see" direction.

I'll try a different gambit and see if I can make any headway. Maybe I can’t, we’ll see. I've argued in my other posts for the role of various types of knowledge in (accurately) shaping people's expectations about prices. Here, I'm going to try to be clear about why those expectations might matter.

The argument for obliterating the PC forum is that PCs add nothing of value and are just noise. The market will always yield a price and that price is the reality of the situation, regardless of what price-checkers might say about it. Fair enough. Simple, straightforward, saves a lot of hassle.

But the other side of the same coin (and several people have mentioned it in passing) is that the seller has to find the price acceptable before an item is actually sold. It's not just the case that the highest bid automatically triggers a sale. Maybe it would be more fun for buyers (and maybe there would be less noise on this site) if that were the case. In reality, though, this isn’t how it works. Before a sale actually happens, the seller has to decide that the price they're being offered is acceptable.

This is important because people when people sell items, there is something at stake. People sell items in order to continue participating in the economy. They're usually selling so that they can turn around and buy something else (a different item, armor, HoM crap, whatever). Selling is (mostly) about accumulating buying power. There are exceptions to this, of course, and I'd be happy to discuss those another time but they might be a distraction now. I'd guess that, generally speaking, selling items for cash is mostly about accumulating buying power.

So, with that in mind, when people sell, they have an interest in somehow knowing (or trying to know) that the price they're receiving will allow them to have the buying power they need (or the increase in buying power they want). I think this is the minimal criterion for finding a price acceptable. Without the sense that selling this item will improve their ability to do the things they want in the economy, the motivation to sell (and comfort with selling) dwindles. Simply receiving a price from the market doesn’t provide this. It only puts the seller in the difficult position of having to decide whether the proposed price is acceptable.

How do people decide whether the proposed price is acceptable? I think it can happen in at least a couple of ways:

1. If someone has a specific purchase in mind, then maybe they can judge the proposed price for their item in light of this concrete goal. Will selling for this price allow me to buy what I want?
   
2. Regardless of whether has a specific purchase in mind, maybe they can judge the proposed price in light of where it would place them on the scale of buying power (as it is known through recent sales of a wide range of items). If I sell for this price, that would allow me access to this tier or level or kind of item. That's the financial neighborhood I would be living in. Is that where I want to be?

Again, I think this is really the minimal criterion. By answering "yes" to one of these questions, someone can sell a Req 8 unconditional axe for 10k because it allows them buy those two pieces of wood they've been wanting. The "buying power" criterion alone can't be the whole story. There is much more to it. Maybe the next set of questions is about whether the price is high enough relative to how other similar items are priced by the market. Sometimes people don't bother going beyond the buying power issue because they're so fixated on what they want to buy next. Buying power isn't the whole story, but it's probably the starting point. But even this minimal set of questions (focusing on buying power) rests on a tricky assumption – that market conditions at the time of sale will match up (at least approximately) with market conditions at the time of their next purchase. Everyone reading this thread knows that the economy in reality is dynamic and confusing. How do people make sense of a dynamic, confusing market – at least to an extent that allows them to act and not be paralyzed by fear that they are crippling themselves financially and relinquishing buying power instead of enhancing it?

They talk to each other. Why do people talk to each other about prices of things? They may talk to each other for information, but a lot of information about previous sales is available anyway (although not a complete database like we have for weapon damage ranges or other research into loot tables). Something else happens when people talk to each other. They manufacture consensus (or pockets of consensus, or pockets of consensus that fight with each other, I don't know). In any case, they manufacture a layer of “knowledge” that helps to stabilize the random fluctuations of the economy (at least within a community that produces the talk and believes in it) and reinforce the meaningful relationships that provide us a way of valuing items relative to each other and forecasting sale prices. The talking that people do with each other is what sets the scene for certain prices to seem “right” or “wrong” or “high” or “low”. People use this kind of trick to make sense and find their way through all kinds of unpredictable and chaotic situations, including everyday life. People generate all kinds of cultural communities that allow the people participating in those communities to manage the inevitable unpredictability that comes with the fact that we are always moving into the future and that's always new. We've talked ourselves into living our lives as if things like "Christmas" and "middle age" exist, but they don't...at least not outside of the communities of people who talk as if they do exist and believe in that talk.

Without this kind of talk – if we strictly relied on what the market spit out when an item goes up for sale – there is none of that. Every price is right simply because it’s the one that happened this time. In this vision of the world, there is no way for a person to make any judgement about whether a price is acceptable. Actually, there is no need for a person to make that decision (really, anybody who decides that the market's price isn't acceptable would just be wrong). And that contradicts one of the fundamental things that we think we know about how buying and selling actually happens. People don’t sell unless they find the price acceptable.

So, my argument here is that price checks are important -- but not because they are predictions of what the market will yield. The market will yield what the market yields. I don’t think PyroLobster is that far off when he wagers that PCs are frequently off by 50% or more. But I’m also not sure that this is their true function. I’m arguing that price checks have a place within our economic system because they’re just one kind of talk that people engage in in order to give an understandable shape and a certain amount of predictability to the economy. This layer of knowledge and pretense of predictability is what lays the groundwork for people to be able to make the judgements they need to make in order to decide whether a proposed price is satisfactory. How can a seller decide if a price is satisfactory if the prices of other items (including the one they might want to buy next) are simply unknown and unknowable until the moment they're sold? There is no way. That would be crazy-making. Do price checks accurately predict what the market will yield? Not always. But I think PCs (good, honest, knowledge-based ones) will continue to be valuable to people because they are at least some indication of whether, in light of how the economy has behaved in the recent past, this person can reasonably expect to get the kind of boost to their buying power that they’d like to get out of the proposed sale. PCs are psychological tools but they're also tools for social coordination of the market. PCs have a psychological purpose – to give people a sense of being able to wrangle the underlying unpredictability of the economy. But PCs also have a social purpose -- to maybe make things a little more predictable through the generation of consensus. Together, these two functions provide a way for people to get a sense whether the best offer is also an acceptable one.

Just telling someone that their item has value and then throwing them to the market doesn't help them make a decision about whether the resulting price is acceptable.

Allowing one (or very few players) to steer the direction of consensus creates discrepancies of power that can lead to the disintegration of communities that generate economies in the first place.

Just an idea. As my mother likes to say at the dinner table, “Take what you want and leave the rest.” Fire at will

Captain Krompdown I love you but u made some mistakes here.

Quote from Captain Krompdown

The argument for obliterating the PC forum is that PCs add nothing of value and are just noise.

One of my early suggestions was to remove the PC forum but not to remove its function of discussing prices. That function would be moved onto sell threads themselves. Leaving people to comment on price once there is more information known about market conditions via the bids received). Obvious has drawbacks I won't bother to outline. This suggestion is extreme, was based in my belief that PC thread was to toxic to bother reforming. After discussion and reading others opinions its now an option I don't support. There is a better way. IMO PC thread can remain for 3 separately defined purposes.

#1 Telling people when something isn't worth selling "merch food" - This already functions well fine under current structure.

#2 Telling people the current "standard price/range" of commonly traded items. - What falls into the category is another discussion to be had.

#3 When an uncommonly traded item comes up we "experts" admit we aren't experts at all on this and don't give guesses posed as prices estimates. Instead we inform the seller that only the market can tell you, after that perhaps we can advise you on if its a good time to sell using real data. In addition we provide advise on how to sell to get the best outcome (avoiding lowballs).

^ This is what I suggest. Not a change in rules of the forum that needs enforcing but instead anybody offering a response considers these guidelines and acts accordingly. There is also space for making #2 and the advise post auction of #3 more accurate with suggestions like Agent Chevy gave about keeping better track of sales.

Am I alone in thinking this is the appropriate way to approach PC Thread? If everybody is happy with the status quo and thinks this change is not a good idea id really like to know. PM if you prefer.

Quote from Captain Krompdown

But the other side of the same coin (and several people have mentioned it in passing) is that the seller has to find the price acceptable before an item is actually sold. It's not just the case that the highest bid automatically triggers a sale.

I completely agree. Here I think you are unintentionally conflating the results of the market pricing items with what the item must or will sell for. The point of sale is not tied to the outcome of this pricing mechanism. There is no forced commitment to buy or sell on legacy. The conclusion of a sell thread (done as outlined previously with marketing, kama ect) will give you the most accurate "fair market price" in the present that's achievable in this system. If anybody disagrees with that statement, please tell us the better existing alternative. What the seller decides to do with that result is a separate issue. I addressed this in a previous post where I suggest this is the better point for opinions on price (outline above in the 3 point plan also haha). That is to say once you have a number firmly based in reality, opinions on numbers become far more useful. Ultimately the seller has a binary choice: Right now do I want x or do I want to keep my item. Using experience of others and personal research at this stage is far superior method than before any real offered price is known.

I wont address most of rest of your essay directly because its criticism concerning psychology and sociology type stuff (which are mostly valid) but I think sprouting from the assumption I want to remove PC thread and point everybody at an auction all the time. While this is the only definitive way to find the "fair market price" at any given point in time in the real world there is a balance to be found between accuracy and convenience. My whole argument is when that balance is wildly swinging away from accuracy we stop and reconsider. In such circumstances I believe offering "minimum prices" and alike is simply dishonest and shouldn't be done even when it has no malice or ulterior motives attached.

Hope that's clarified my current thoughts.

Pyro

PyroLobster This is great. I love your proposed revision to the PC forum. It's similar to a suggestion I made on this thread almost 2.5 years ago. Your suggestion is different (and more realistic) because in that thread, I was trying to figure out how to get something similar done while eliminating all words from PC threads in order to appease a certain mod.

I also agree 100% that I did conflate the "price resulting from a public sale as information regarding the current state of the market" with "sale price".

Finally, I agree that the price information produced within a sale thread and the seller's decision about whether to sell are indeed two different things. The proposed price can turn into the sale price if the seller find the proposed price acceptable. Since the ultimate purpose of a sale thread is to produce a sale, I think that the connection between those two things is extremely important. That connection is really what my post was about. Maybe a psychological/sociological look at PCs will help us understand how PCs play a role in creating the conditions under which a potential seller can reasonably (and reasonably accurately) judge whether the market price is acceptable. I was thinking more about the value of PCs in general terms and less about the format in which they should be given.

But, in the process of trying to think about the value of PCs, I did try to first establish them as valuable by holding up a strawman version of your argument. I'm glad you called me on that and I apologize. It wasn't intentional.

To a non-collector some of the things people collect seem odd. I suspect many are eaten by the hungry Merch Monster without understanding they have value.

While I say I'm not a collector per say; I have a few odd things about that caught my eye, they serve no purpose other than to take up vast amounts of space and please me. None of them are traditional collector items however, I suspect I may be a different eccentric than average collectors.

Upon finding my way here I observed for a time the price checks as well as those giving the price checks. A price check is often not just a fair pricing index; it's also a very subjective thing with personality. Many price checks of items are based on that personality. (In the real world, I've received messages during operations without a name attached and still known who it was from: while I can't explain how I know, I just do.)

Not only will opinions vary, often the personality of the opinion will vary even more so even if the price is identical.